Yes, COVID-19 is still circulating worldwide. In the 28 days leading up to February 15, 2026, the World Health Organization recorded 48,187 new cases globally, a number that actually increased by about 4,000 compared to the previous 28-day period. The virus has not disappeared. It has settled into a pattern of ongoing transmission with predictable seasonal waves, much like influenza.
How Much COVID Is Spreading Right Now
The CDC tracks COVID-19 levels in the U.S. through wastewater surveillance, which detects viral particles in sewage and gives a broader picture of community spread than testing alone (since many people now test at home or not at all). For the week ending February 21, 2026, the national wastewater viral activity level was moderate. The Midwest had the highest activity, followed by the Northeast, while the West had the lowest levels.
These numbers reflect a winter wave, which fits the pattern researchers have documented since the pandemic began. COVID cases tend to peak three times per year in the U.S.: a dominant surge in winter, a smaller bump in spring, and another in mid-to-late summer. The winter peak is consistently the largest.
How Dangerous Is It Compared to 2020
The virus still kills people, but the scale is vastly different from the early pandemic. In the 28 days ending February 15, 2026, 1,596 COVID deaths were reported to the WHO worldwide, and that number was actually declining from the prior month. For comparison, a single week in late January 2021 saw over 100,000 COVID deaths globally. That means weekly deaths at the pandemic’s worst were roughly 15 to 20 times higher than an entire month’s toll today.
This dramatic drop reflects widespread population immunity from both infection and vaccination, better treatments, and the evolution of the virus toward variants that cause less severe illness in most people. That said, COVID remains a serious risk for older adults, people with weakened immune systems, and those with chronic health conditions like heart disease, diabetes, or lung disease.
COVID’s Seasonal Pattern
One of the clearest developments since the pandemic is that COVID-19 has become seasonal. A study analyzing three full years of U.S. data (March 2020 through March 2023) found a repeating cycle of roughly 366 days for the dominant winter peak, with two smaller peaks spaced about every 146 days. This pattern held regardless of masking policies, social distancing measures, or vaccination campaigns.
In practical terms, this means you can expect COVID activity to rise each winter, dip in late spring, bump up again in summer, and then climb toward its annual peak as cold weather returns. This mirrors what happens with other respiratory viruses and is driven partly by people spending more time indoors and partly by how the virus behaves in cold, dry air.
Testing Still Works, but Check Expiration Dates
Home rapid antigen tests remain available and still detect current variants. If you test negative but have symptoms, the FDA recommends repeating the test, since a single negative result can miss an early infection. This applies whether or not you have symptoms.
Many home tests sitting in medicine cabinets have had their expiration dates extended by the FDA. You can check the FDA’s website by searching for your test’s manufacturer or brand name to see if your kit is still valid beyond the date printed on the box. Tests from manufacturers like ACON Laboratories (Flowflex) are among those with extended shelf lives.
Vaccines Updated for Current Variants
The 2025-2026 COVID vaccines target the Omicron JN.1 lineage, which is the family of variants currently circulating. Three vaccine types are available in the U.S.: mRNA vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech, and a protein-based vaccine from Novavax. The mRNA versions specifically target the LP.8.1 strain, while Novavax targets the broader JN.1 strain.
Moderna’s vaccine is approved for anyone 6 months and older, Pfizer’s for ages 5 and up, and Novavax for ages 12 and up. Children under 5 who previously received Pfizer’s vaccine are being transitioned to Moderna for their updated doses, since Pfizer does not currently have an approved formulation for that age group. The recommended number of doses depends on your age, immune status, and how many previous COVID vaccines you’ve had.
Treatments if You Get Infected
Antiviral treatment is still available and recommended for people at higher risk of severe illness. The first-choice option is Paxlovid, an oral medication taken twice daily for five days. It needs to be started within five days of symptom onset, so getting tested early matters. Paxlovid is approved for adults and children 12 and older who weigh at least 88 pounds. It does interact with a number of common medications, so your doctor or pharmacist will need to review what you’re taking.
If Paxlovid isn’t an option, a three-day course of the intravenous antiviral remdesivir can be started within seven days of symptoms. A third option, molnupiravir, is an oral alternative reserved for situations where neither of the first two treatments is accessible or appropriate. All three are aimed at preventing mild or moderate cases from progressing to hospitalization, and all work best when started as early as possible.
For most healthy people, COVID in 2026 means a few days of feeling lousy, similar to a bad cold or flu. But the virus hasn’t become harmless, and the tools to protect yourself, from updated vaccines to early antiviral treatment, are still worth knowing about.