Australia is in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), characterized by both low birth rates and low death rates. It shares this classification with countries like Canada, the United States, most of Europe, and South Korea. However, several trends suggest Australia is gradually moving toward Stage 5, where deaths begin to outnumber births and population growth depends entirely on immigration.
What Stage 4 Looks Like in Australia
Stage 4 countries have completed the shift from high birth and death rates (Stages 1 and 2) through rapidly falling birth rates (Stage 3) into a period of relative demographic stability. Population still grows, but slowly. The key drivers behind this shift in Australia mirror those seen globally: a strong economy, high levels of education, widespread access to healthcare, urbanization, and expanded employment opportunities for women.
Australia’s crude death rate sits at about 6.9 deaths per 1,000 people. Life expectancy at birth is 81.1 years for males and 85.1 years for females. The total fertility rate dropped to 1.50 babies per woman in 2023, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. That’s well below the replacement level of 2.1, the threshold needed for a population to sustain its size without immigration. Australia’s fertility rate has actually been below replacement since the mid-1970s.
Why Australia Hasn’t Tipped Into Stage 5
Stage 5 is defined by population decline, where deaths consistently exceed births and the total population shrinks. Australia isn’t there yet, but the gap is narrowing. In 1993-94, natural increase (births minus deaths) was 135,000 people per year. By 2023-24, that figure had fallen to 106,000. The reason: deaths have grown from 124,000 to 183,000 per year over that period, while births have only risen modestly from 259,000 to 289,000.
Projections show natural increase will continue to shrink as Australia’s population ages. Currently, about 16% of Australians are aged 65 or older, up from just 4.6% a century ago. By 2066, that share is expected to reach somewhere between 21% and 23%. As this larger elderly population pushes death numbers higher and fewer women of childbearing age keep birth numbers flat or falling, the crossover point gets closer. Countries like Japan, South Korea, China, and Russia have already crossed into population decline.
Immigration Keeps the Population Growing
The single biggest reason Australia’s population continues to grow despite below-replacement fertility is immigration. Net overseas migration added 306,000 people to Australia’s population in 2024-25, down from 429,000 the year before. Historically, more people move to Australia than leave each year, making immigration a far larger contributor to population growth than natural increase.
This is a hallmark of late Stage 4. The country’s own birth rate can no longer sustain population growth on its own, so immigration fills the gap. Without it, Australia’s population trajectory would look much more like Japan’s.
An Aging Population With Stage 5 Pressure
The clearest sign that Australia is in late Stage 4, not early Stage 4, is the speed at which its population is aging. One in six Australians is now 65 or older. The number of deaths is growing faster than the number of births, and that trend is projected to continue. The fertility rate has fallen from 1.85 in the early 1990s to 1.49 today, a decline of nearly 20% in three decades.
It’s worth noting that demographic patterns aren’t uniform across the country. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women had a fertility rate of 2.17 in 2023, right at replacement level. Urbanization also plays a role in shaping these trends. Employment drives 28% of moves to Australian cities, and education motivates a disproportionate share of younger migrants to urban areas, reinforcing the economic patterns that tend to lower fertility further.
Where Australia Sits on the Model
If you’re studying the DTM for a class or trying to understand Australia’s demographic future, the short answer is Stage 4 with strong Stage 5 tendencies. The country has low birth rates, low death rates, high life expectancy, an aging population, and heavy reliance on immigration for growth. Natural increase is positive but shrinking. Australia hasn’t entered population decline, which is the defining marker of Stage 5, but the demographic pressures pushing it in that direction are well established and accelerating.