Yes, COVID-19 still exists and continues to circulate worldwide. The virus that causes it, SARS-CoV-2, never disappeared. What changed is its status: the World Health Organization ended its classification as a public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023, and most countries dropped mandatory public health measures. But the virus itself remains active, mutating, and causing illness, hospitalization, and death every week.
How Active Is COVID-19 Right Now?
The CDC tracks SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater across the United States, which provides a reliable snapshot of how much virus is circulating regardless of whether people get tested. As of late February 2026, national wastewater viral activity for COVID-19 is at a moderate level. That’s well below the peaks seen during major surges (activity hit 7.34 on the CDC’s scale in September 2025, which falls in the “high” range), but it’s clearly not zero.
The virus follows a pattern of periodic surges, though its timing is less predictable than influenza. A study published in The Lancet Regional Health found that COVID-19 outbreaks did not show a consistent seasonal pattern between 2022 and 2025, unlike RSV and flu, which peak more reliably each winter. COVID can surge in summer, winter, or both, which makes it harder to anticipate.
The Virus Keeps Evolving
SARS-CoV-2 continues to mutate, producing new subvariants regularly. The CDC tracks which lineages are circulating and in what proportions. As of mid-February 2026, the dominant group is XFG and its offshoots, which together account for roughly two-thirds of sequenced cases. Other lineages like NB.1.8.1 (around 21%) and XFZ (around 5%) make up much of the rest. When a new lineage develops mutations in its spike protein that could affect vaccine effectiveness, transmission, or severity, the CDC breaks it out for separate tracking.
This constant evolution is why updated vaccines are released periodically, similar to the annual flu shot. The virus you’d catch today is genetically distinct from the original strain that emerged in 2020, though it’s still SARS-CoV-2.
How Dangerous Is It Now Compared to the Flu?
COVID-19 has become less deadly than it was during the early pandemic waves, thanks to widespread immunity from prior infections and vaccination. But it hasn’t become harmless. A large cohort study comparing hospitalized patients found that during the 2022-2023 season, the 30-day risk of death was 1.0% for COVID-19 versus 0.7% for influenza. By the 2023-2024 season, that short-term gap had narrowed and the two were similar.
The longer-term picture is different. At 180 days after infection, COVID-19 still carried a higher mortality risk than both influenza and RSV across both seasons studied. So while the acute phase of COVID has become comparable to a bad flu for most people, its lingering effects on the body appear to last longer.
Long COVID Remains a Concern
One of the reasons COVID-19 continues to matter even in its less severe form is long COVID. As of March 2024, roughly 7% of U.S. adults, about 17 million people, reported currently experiencing long COVID symptoms. These can include persistent fatigue, brain fog, shortness of breath, and other problems that last weeks or months after the initial infection clears.
Not everyone who gets COVID develops long-term symptoms, and vaccination appears to reduce the risk. But the sheer number of people affected makes it one of the most significant ongoing health consequences of the virus.
Vaccines and Treatment Are Still Available
Updated COVID-19 vaccines are released to match circulating variants, much like the seasonal flu shot. The CDC recommends that everyone stay current on COVID vaccination, with extra emphasis on people 65 and older and those with weakened immune systems. Older adults and immunocompromised individuals are advised to get a second dose of the current season’s vaccine six months after their first, and immunocompromised people may receive additional doses in consultation with a provider.
Antiviral treatment is also still available for people who test positive and are at higher risk of severe illness. Eligibility starts at age 12. Cost assistance programs have helped cover the expense for people on Medicare, Medicaid, and those without insurance, though the specifics of coverage change over time. If you test positive and have risk factors like older age, chronic conditions, or a weakened immune system, treatment works best when started within the first few days of symptoms.
Home Tests Still Work, With a Caveat
Rapid antigen tests, the kind you can buy at a pharmacy and use at home, still detect current variants of SARS-CoV-2. However, the FDA has noted that some antigen tests may have reduced sensitivity with newer variants descended from omicron. This means a single negative result isn’t as reliable as it could be. The FDA recommends repeat testing after a negative result, whether or not you have symptoms, to reduce the chance of missing a true infection. If you feel sick and test negative once, testing again a day or two later gives a more accurate picture.
Why It Feels Like COVID Disappeared
The combination of dropped mask mandates, ended emergency declarations, and reduced media coverage has created the impression that COVID-19 is over. In a practical sense, daily life has returned to something close to pre-pandemic normal. But the virus circulates continuously, causes tens of thousands of hospitalizations during surges, and contributes to ongoing long COVID cases. It has shifted from a crisis to an endemic respiratory virus, one that most people will encounter repeatedly over their lifetimes, similar to flu but with its own distinct risks. The emergency is over. The virus is not.