How Many Axolotls Are There Left in the World?

The axolotl, or Ambystoma mexicanum, is an aquatic salamander known for its unusual biology. This amphibian exhibits neoteny, retaining juvenile characteristics like external gills and a fully aquatic lifestyle into adulthood, never undergoing metamorphosis. The species is also recognized for its extraordinary regenerative capacity, allowing it to regrow complex structures like limbs, parts of its brain, and damaged sections of its spinal cord without scarring. This combination of features has made the axolotl one of the most studied amphibians, even as its status in the wild has become precarious.

The Critical Number

The wild population of the axolotl has suffered a catastrophic decline, pushing the species to the brink of extinction. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) classifies the axolotl as Critically Endangered, reflecting an estimated population loss of at least 80% over the last three generations. Authoritative figures suggest there are only between 50 and 1,000 mature, wild individuals remaining.

Density studies conducted in the axolotl’s native habitat illustrate the severity of the decline. Researchers estimated a density of 6,000 individuals per square kilometer in the Xochimilco canal system in 1998. This number plummeted to 1,000 per square kilometer in 2004, and then fell to 100 per square kilometer by 2008. More recent surveys suggest the density has dropped to as low as 35 individuals per square kilometer, with some studies finding only a single organism in the entire region.

A Singular Home

The axolotl’s rarity is linked to its limited geographical range. This species is microendemic, found only in a specific location within the Mexican Central Valley. Historically, the axolotl inhabited a system of freshwater lakes, including Lake Chalco and Lake Xochimilco, along the southern edge of the Basin of Mexico.

Today, the entire wild population is confined almost exclusively to the remnants of Lake Xochimilco, a complex of canals and artificial channels in the southern part of Mexico City. This ancient lake system, which once supported the Aztec capital, has been largely drained to accommodate the city’s expansion and flood control. The remaining habitat is a network of shallow, man-made waterways interwoven with traditional farming plots known as chinampas.

Pressures on Survival

The dramatic population crash in the wild is the result of multiple, compounding environmental pressures stemming from the rapid urbanization of Mexico City. Habitat destruction is the foremost threat, as the city’s expansion led to the drainage and fragmentation of the original lake system. The remaining canals of Xochimilco are severely impacted by pollution, including untreated sewage and agricultural runoff. This contamination introduces heavy metals and high levels of ammonia, which are damaging because the axolotl’s permeable skin makes it highly susceptible to disease and poisoning.

The introduction of non-native species poses another significant threat. In the 1970s, common carp and Nile tilapia were introduced into the canals to provide a food source for local communities. These invasive fish compete directly with axolotls for food sources like worms and insects. More detrimentally, the carp and tilapia are predators that actively prey upon young axolotls and their eggs, drastically reducing the survival rate of new generations.

Captive Abundance vs. Wild Scarcity

The axolotl presents a conservation paradox: it is virtually extinct in its natural habitat yet exists in vast numbers across the globe. There are estimated to be millions of axolotls living in captivity, including those in research laboratories, zoos, and the exotic pet trade. This abundance traces back to a small shipment of just 34 axolotls sent from Xochimilco to Paris in 1864, from which many modern captive lines descend.

The species is highly valued in scientific research due to its unparalleled ability to regenerate complex tissues and organs. Scientists study the axolotl to unlock the molecular mechanisms of regeneration, hoping to apply these findings to human medicine for spinal cord injury and tissue repair. However, these captive populations, while indispensable for science, often have reduced genetic diversity and are sometimes the result of hybridization with other salamander species, making them genetically distinct from their wild counterparts. This global abundance does not alleviate the conservation crisis in Mexico, as the captive animals are generally unsuitable for reintroduction efforts.