As of 2024, approximately 589 million adults worldwide are living with diabetes. That’s 11.1% of the global adult population, or roughly 1 in 9 people. The number has been climbing steadily for decades, and projections suggest it will continue rising sharply in the coming years.
The Current Global Count
The most recent estimates come from the 11th edition of the IDF Diabetes Atlas, published in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology, which puts the 2024 figure at 589 million adults aged 20 to 79. That represents a significant jump from 2021, when the estimate was 537 million. The vast majority of these cases, roughly 90 to 95%, are type 2 diabetes, which is closely linked to weight, physical inactivity, and diet. Type 1 diabetes, where the immune system destroys insulin-producing cells, accounts for the remainder in adults.
Children and adolescents add to the total. About 1.8 million people under age 20 are living with type 1 diabetes worldwide. Type 2 diabetes in young people is also rising but remains far less common than type 1 in this age group.
Hundreds of Millions More Are at Risk
Beyond the 589 million already diagnosed or living with diabetes, a massive population sits in the danger zone. About 635 million adults worldwide (1 in 8) have impaired glucose tolerance, a condition where blood sugar runs higher than normal after eating but hasn’t crossed into diabetes territory. Another 488 million (1 in 11) have impaired fasting glucose, meaning their blood sugar is elevated even before meals. Both conditions are forms of pre-diabetes, and without lifestyle changes, a significant portion of these people will develop type 2 diabetes within years.
When you combine the 589 million with diagnosed diabetes, the hundreds of millions with pre-diabetes, and an unknown but substantial number of undiagnosed cases, the true scale of disordered blood sugar regulation worldwide likely exceeds 1 billion people.
Where the Numbers Are Headed
The trajectory is not encouraging. Projections from the IDF estimate that by 2045, 783 million adults will have diabetes, a prevalence of 12.2%. That’s nearly 250 million more people than today. Population growth, aging, urbanization, and rising obesity rates in low- and middle-income countries are the primary drivers. Even in countries where obesity rates have stabilized, the existing population is aging into higher-risk years, which keeps the numbers climbing.
The speed of this increase matters. It took decades for the global count to move from 100 million to 500 million. The jump from 500 million to nearly 800 million is expected to happen in roughly 25 years.
Deaths and Health Consequences
Diabetes was the direct cause of 1.6 million deaths in 2021, according to the World Health Organization. Nearly half of those deaths occurred in people under 70, which challenges the perception that diabetes is primarily a disease of old age. But the full death toll is considerably higher than that headline number. An additional 530,000 deaths from kidney disease were attributable to diabetes, and elevated blood sugar contributes to about 11% of all cardiovascular deaths globally. When you factor in strokes, heart attacks, infections, and other complications worsened by diabetes, the condition is one of the leading causes of death worldwide.
The complications that don’t kill still carry enormous consequences. Diabetes is the leading cause of blindness in working-age adults, a major driver of kidney failure requiring dialysis, and the most common reason for non-traumatic limb amputations. Nerve damage affecting the feet, hands, and digestive system is extremely common in people with poorly controlled blood sugar over time.
Why Low-Income Countries Bear the Heaviest Burden
The geography of diabetes has shifted dramatically. While it was once considered a disease of wealthy nations, the fastest growth is now in low- and middle-income countries across South Asia, the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Pacific Islands. Rapid urbanization in these regions has brought dramatic dietary shifts, from traditional whole foods to processed, calorie-dense diets, along with more sedentary work. At the same time, healthcare systems in these countries are often poorly equipped to manage a chronic condition that requires ongoing monitoring, medication, and patient education.
The result is a double burden: more people developing diabetes and fewer resources to treat it. In many low-income settings, the cost of insulin alone can consume a large share of a family’s income. Diagnosis often comes late, after complications have already set in, because routine screening is uncommon. This gap between disease burden and healthcare capacity is one of the defining public health challenges of the coming decades.
What’s Driving the Global Rise
No single factor explains why diabetes has grown from a relatively uncommon condition to one affecting more than half a billion people. The largest contributor is the global rise in overweight and obesity. Excess body fat, particularly around the abdomen, makes cells less responsive to insulin, forcing the pancreas to work harder until it can no longer keep up. Worldwide, obesity has nearly tripled since 1975, and the diabetes curve has followed closely behind.
Physical inactivity compounds the problem. Muscle tissue is one of the body’s primary consumers of blood sugar, and regular movement helps keep cells sensitive to insulin. As more of the world’s population works desk jobs and relies on cars rather than walking, this natural blood sugar regulation weakens. Aging populations also play a role, since insulin production and sensitivity both decline with age. And there’s growing evidence that factors like sleep disruption, chronic stress, and exposure to certain environmental chemicals may contribute to insulin resistance independently of weight.
The 589 million figure will almost certainly continue climbing. But type 2 diabetes is largely preventable. Moderate weight loss of 5 to 7% of body weight, combined with regular physical activity, reduces the risk of progressing from pre-diabetes to diabetes by roughly 58%, a result that has held up across multiple large studies in different populations. The challenge is scaling those interventions to match the size of the problem.