No. Antarctic ice is decreasing overall, and the decline has accelerated in recent years. Between 2002 and 2025, Antarctica lost roughly 135 billion metric tons of land ice per year, raising global sea levels by about 0.4 millimeters annually. Meanwhile, the sea ice that floats on the ocean around the continent hit record and near-record lows in 2023 and 2024. The idea that Antarctic ice is growing comes from a real but outdated trend in sea ice that has since reversed sharply.
Why the Question Persists
For years, a small but genuine increase in Antarctic sea ice gave this claim legs. Satellite records showed a slight upward trend in sea ice extent from the late 1970s through the mid-2010s. That trend was real, driven by large opposing regional patterns that, when averaged together, produced a modest net gain. Antarctic sea ice extent peaked in 2014.
But that gain disappeared fast. After 2014, yearly average sea ice extent dropped so quickly that by 2018, the losses had wiped out the entire 35-year gain. Then came the extreme lows of 2023 and 2024, with the 2023 winter maximum setting a record low and 2024 coming in as the second lowest on record. The 2024 winter maximum was 1.55 million square kilometers below the 1981 to 2010 average. So even the one metric that was briefly trending upward is now firmly in decline.
Land Ice vs. Sea Ice: A Critical Distinction
Antarctica has two very different kinds of ice, and confusing them is at the heart of most misunderstandings. Sea ice forms when ocean water freezes around the continent each winter and partially melts each summer. Because it’s already floating in the ocean, melting sea ice doesn’t raise sea levels, the same way a melting ice cube doesn’t overflow your glass. Land ice, by contrast, sits on the Antarctic continent itself in massive ice sheets and glaciers. When land ice melts or breaks off into the ocean, it adds new water and pushes sea levels higher. For every 360 billion metric tons of land ice lost, the ocean rises by one millimeter.
The land ice sheet is where the real concern lies. It contains enough frozen water to raise global sea levels by roughly 58 meters if it all melted. Even partial losses matter enormously for coastal communities worldwide.
What Satellite Data Shows About Land Ice
NASA’s GRACE and GRACE Follow-On satellites have measured Antarctica’s land ice mass since 2002 by detecting tiny changes in Earth’s gravitational field. The picture is unambiguous: the ice sheet is losing mass, at a rate of approximately 132 billion metric tons per year (with an uncertainty of about 39 billion tons in either direction). That ice flows into the Southern Ocean and contributes directly to sea level rise.
The losses are not spread evenly across the continent. West Antarctica accounts for a disproportionate share, with the Amundsen Sea region alone responsible for 8% of the current global sea level rise of 4.5 millimeters per year. The amount of ice flowing into the sea from this region more than doubled between the 1990s and the 2010s.
The Thwaites Glacier Problem
Thwaites Glacier, often called the “Doomsday Glacier,” illustrates why scientists are worried about acceleration rather than just current rates. This single glacier’s retreat has sped up considerably over the past 40 years. If Thwaites collapsed entirely, it would raise sea levels by about 65 centimeters. But because it acts as a buttress holding back the broader West Antarctic Ice Sheet, its collapse could destabilize the wider region, potentially contributing more than 3 meters of sea level rise.
Geological evidence from the seafloor shows that Thwaites has retreated even faster in the past. Ridges left on the ocean floor by the glacier’s grounding line reveal a period when it pulled back more than 2 kilometers per year, twice as fast as today’s rate. Current models predict continuing rapid ice loss through this century, accelerating further into the next, with the possibility of a general West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse.
Doesn’t More Snowfall Offset the Losses?
A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, and Antarctica does receive more snowfall as temperatures rise. This has led some to argue that increased snow accumulation in the continent’s interior could compensate for ice lost at the coasts. Research from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research directly tested this idea using ice-physics simulations and found that 30 to 65 percent of any ice gained from extra snowfall is counteracted by faster ice flow toward the coast.
The mechanism is straightforward. Additional snow builds up the interior ice sheet, creating a steeper slope toward the coast. Ice flows downhill under its own weight, so a higher interior means faster movement toward the ocean, where it breaks off as icebergs. The increased ice discharge can be up to three times greater because of the additional precipitation. As the researchers put it: snowfall in Antarctica will not save us from sea level rise.
What Drives Antarctic Ice Loss
Warm ocean water is the primary driver of land ice loss, particularly in West Antarctica. The deep, relatively warm water mass that flows beneath ice shelves like Pine Island and Thwaites melts them from underneath, thinning and destabilizing the glaciers they support. The changes happening now are concentrated along the coastline, which points clearly to oceanic rather than geological causes.
Antarctica does sit on volcanic terrain, and geothermal heat beneath the ice sheet is real. But scientists at NASA have confirmed that this heat source has been present for millions of years and represents a background condition, not a new or increasing threat. The Antarctic ice sheet is at least 30 million years old and has coexisted with this volcanism the entire time. There is no connection between volcanic activity and the ice mass losses observed in recent decades.
For sea ice, the picture is more complex. Whether sea ice forms in a given area depends on upper ocean temperatures, wind-driven ice drift, and how much heat is mixed up from deeper water layers. Near the winter ice edge, warm water entrained into the surface layer can prevent freezing entirely. Changes in wind patterns and ocean circulation since 2016 have contributed to the dramatic decline in sea ice extent, though climate models still struggle to fully capture the processes at play in the Southern Ocean.
The Overall Trend
Both forms of Antarctic ice are now declining. Land ice has been losing mass consistently since at least 2002, with losses concentrated in West Antarctica and accelerating over time. Sea ice, which showed a small increase through the mid-2010s, reversed course dramatically and reached record lows in 2023 and 2024. The earlier sea ice gain, even at its peak, never offset the massive land ice losses that drive sea level rise. Antarctica as a whole is losing ice, and the rate is increasing.