Brazil’s population is still increasing, but barely. As of 2024, the country’s annual growth rate sits at just 0.4%, and that number is shrinking every year. Brazil’s national statistics agency, IBGE, projects the population will peak at about 220.4 million in 2041, then begin a sustained decline.
With an estimated 212.6 million people as of mid-2024, Brazil remains the seventh most populous country on Earth. But the forces driving growth have weakened dramatically over the past two decades, and the country is now on a clear path toward population decline within a generation.
Why Growth Is Slowing So Quickly
The single biggest factor is a sharp drop in the number of children women are having. In 2000, the average Brazilian woman had 2.32 children over her lifetime. By 2010 that had fallen to 1.75, and by 2023 it reached 1.57. All of these recent figures are well below the “replacement level” of 2.1 children per woman, which is the rate needed just to keep a population stable without immigration. Across Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole, the fertility rate hit 1.8 in 2024, meaning Brazil is falling even faster than its regional neighbors.
IBGE projections show Brazil’s fertility rate continuing to drop, reaching 1.47 by 2030 and bottoming out around 1.44 in 2041. That’s comparable to levels seen today in countries like Italy and Japan, both of which are already experiencing population shrinkage.
The 2041 Turning Point
Brazil’s population will keep growing for roughly another 17 years, but each year the gains get smaller. By 2041, growth will hit zero and the population will peak at an estimated 220,425,299 people. After that, the trajectory reverses. IBGE projects Brazil’s population will fall to about 199.2 million by 2070, a loss of over 21 million people in under three decades. That would bring the country back to roughly where it was in the mid-2010s.
The reason the population keeps growing at all right now, despite below-replacement fertility, is demographic momentum. Decades of higher birth rates produced a large generation of people who are currently in their childbearing years. Even though each of them is having fewer children than their parents did, there are enough of them to keep total births above total deaths for now. Once that generation ages out, the math flips.
Brazilians Are Living Longer
Life expectancy in Brazil reached 76.6 years in 2024, up by about 2.5 months from the previous year. Men can expect to live to 73.3 on average, while women reach 79.9, a gap of 6.6 years. Rising life expectancy means people are staying in the population longer, which partially offsets the decline in births and helps explain why total numbers are still inching upward.
But longer lives also accelerate population aging. As fewer children are born and more people live into their 70s and 80s, the share of elderly residents grows. This gradual shift will reshape Brazil’s economy and public services in the coming decades, increasing pressure on pension systems and healthcare while shrinking the pool of working-age adults.
What This Means in Practical Terms
For now, Brazil is in a transitional phase that demographers sometimes call the closing of the “demographic window.” This is the period when a country has a large working-age population relative to dependents (children and elderly), which can fuel economic growth. As birth rates keep falling and the population ages, that window narrows. Countries that have passed through this stage, like South Korea and much of Western Europe, have faced labor shortages, rising elder care costs, and slower economic expansion.
Brazil’s trajectory is not unusual by global standards. What’s notable is the speed. The country went from above-replacement fertility to levels comparable with aging European nations in roughly two decades. Many wealthy countries took 50 or more years to make the same transition. The combination of rapid urbanization, rising education levels (especially among women), and greater access to family planning compressed the timeline considerably.
So while the short answer is that Brazil’s population is still growing today, the more complete picture is that this growth is a slow fade. The country is adding people at a fraction of the rate it did a generation ago, and within less than 20 years, it will stop adding them entirely.