Parts of Canada are experiencing significant drought, but conditions vary dramatically by region. Western Canada has seen some relief from recent precipitation, while south-central British Columbia remains locked in a multi-year drought, and eastern Canada has been recording below-normal rainfall. According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s drought monitor, nearly a third of the Pacific Region and 45% of the Northern Region are classified as abnormally dry or in moderate to extreme drought.
Where Drought Is Most Severe
The hardest-hit area is British Columbia’s Thompson-Okanagan region. The Okanagan Valley, Similkameen, Nicola, and South Thompson areas have received less than 50% of their normal precipitation, continuing a drought trend that has persisted for multiple years. Okanagan Lake sits at below-normal water levels as a result. Roughly 63% of the Pacific Region’s agricultural landscape falls within drought-affected zones.
In Alberta, low precipitation combined with warmer-than-normal temperatures has driven an expansion of moderate drought across south-central and southeastern parts of the province. Severe drought has also spread slightly in Alberta’s drier southwest corner, where evaporation and sublimation are compounding the rainfall deficit.
The picture is more mixed elsewhere. The southern Peace region near Dawson Creek, which had been experiencing moderate to severe drought, saw conditions improve after above-normal precipitation. Much of western Canada outside south-central B.C. received near or above-normal rainfall, which helped ease conditions on the Prairies. Eastern Canada, however, has been trending in the opposite direction, recording below to well-below-normal precipitation.
What’s Driving the Drought
Several factors have converged. The 2023-2024 El Niño cycle pushed warmer, drier winters across the Pacific Northwest and into western Canada. Warmer winters mean less total precipitation and more of it falling as rain instead of snow, which reduces the snowpack that feeds rivers and reservoirs through the summer. That translates directly into decreased runoff and lower water availability during the months when demand is highest.
Climate change is amplifying these cycles. Longer periods of drought, altered precipitation patterns, early snowmelt, and record-breaking heat are all becoming more frequent across the country. By early April, a significant moisture deficit had developed across much of Canada as prolonged drought and early snowmelt coincided with extreme warmth. These conditions dry out vegetation faster, making the landscape more vulnerable to wildfire ignition and spread.
How Drought Connects to Wildfire Risk
Drought and wildfire are tightly linked. When soils and vegetation dry out, fuels become more flammable and quicker to ignite. Canada’s recent record-breaking fire seasons are partly a product of these drying trends. Temperature and moisture are the two biggest climatic drivers of fire activity, and both are shifting in ways that extend the fire season, particularly in spring and fall when reduced winter precipitation and early snowmelt leave forests exposed.
Drought also worsens pest outbreaks that kill trees, adding dead and damaged vegetation to the fuel load. The result is a compounding cycle: drought weakens forests, pest damage accumulates, and the dried-out landscape burns more easily when ignition occurs.
Impact on Farming and Water Supply
Agriculture takes the most direct hit. In the Thompson-Okanagan region, the multi-year precipitation deficit has kept water levels low in the reservoirs and lakes that irrigate orchards and vineyards. When monthly rainfall drops below 40 to 50% of normal for extended stretches, soil moisture falls to levels that stress crops and reduce yields.
Alberta’s expanding drought footprint is a concern for ranchers and grain farmers in the south-central and southeastern parts of the province. Warmer temperatures accelerate moisture loss from soil even when some rain does fall, making each millimeter of precipitation less effective. The Prairies have historically been Canada’s most drought-vulnerable agricultural region, and even a moderate classification can translate into measurable yield reductions if it persists through the growing season.
What the Forecast Looks Like
There is one piece of encouraging news for parts of western Canada: recent snowfall has improved mountain snowpack, raising expectations for normal to above-normal streamflow in major river basins through spring and summer. That could provide some buffer for irrigation and municipal water supplies in the most affected valleys.
The broader national outlook is less reassuring. Environment and Climate Change Canada has predicted higher-than-normal temperatures across most of the country, with below-normal precipitation continuing into summer. Coastal British Columbia is the exception, where temperatures are expected to stay closer to normal. For the regions already in drought, a hot and dry summer would deepen existing deficits and extend the stress on water supplies, agriculture, and fire-prone landscapes.