As of mid-April 2025, COVID-19 is not on the rise in the United States. National wastewater surveillance from the CDC shows viral activity levels at “Very Low,” the lowest category on a five-tier scale. That doesn’t mean the virus has disappeared, but it does mean circulation is minimal compared to recent surges.
What Wastewater Data Shows Right Now
The most reliable real-time signal for COVID trends is wastewater monitoring, since it captures viral traces from entire communities regardless of whether people get tested. The CDC’s national wastewater data for the week of April 12 through April 18, 2025, categorizes COVID-19 viral activity as “Very Low.” The agency uses five levels: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High.
This matters because traditional case counts have become less useful. Hospitals stopped being required to report COVID admissions to the federal government after May 2024, and most infections now happen at home without a formal test. Wastewater fills that gap by measuring how much virus an entire population is shedding, whether or not individuals know they’re infected.
Which Variants Are Circulating
The dominant strain right now is XFG.1.1, making up about 32% of sequenced cases in the two weeks ending April 11, 2025. Its parent lineage XFG accounts for another 13%, and XFG.14.1 rounds out the top three at 8%. These are all descendants of the Omicron family that has dominated since late 2021, continuing to evolve but not dramatically shifting the disease landscape.
Symptom profiles haven’t meaningfully changed with newer variants. Researchers at Johns Hopkins noted that recent Omicron-descended variants produce the same general pattern: sore throat, congestion, fatigue, cough, headache, and sometimes fever. The illness tends to be milder for most people, though experts attribute that more to widespread immunity from prior infections and vaccination than to the virus itself becoming less dangerous.
Home Tests Still Have Limitations
If you’re pulling a rapid antigen test from your medicine cabinet, it’s worth knowing that these tests miss a significant number of infections. A CDC study found rapid antigen tests detected only 47% of infections confirmed by PCR, the gold-standard lab test. When compared against samples that could actually grow live virus (meaning the person was truly contagious), sensitivity rose to 80%, which is better but still not perfect.
Timing makes a big difference. The highest rate of positive results on rapid tests came about three days after symptoms started. On days when no symptoms were present, sensitivity dropped to just 18% compared with PCR. So if you test negative but feel sick, testing again a day or two later significantly improves your chances of catching a real infection.
Current Isolation Guidelines
The CDC simplified its respiratory virus guidance in March 2024, and those recommendations still apply. If you test positive or develop symptoms, the guidance is straightforward: stay home until your symptoms have been improving for at least 24 hours and any fever has been gone for 24 hours without medication. You don’t need to count to a specific number of days the way earlier guidelines required.
Once you return to normal activities, the CDC encourages five additional days of precautions: wearing a well-fitting mask around others, improving ventilation when indoors, keeping distance when practical, and maintaining good hand hygiene. The infectious window typically begins one to two days before symptoms appear and can extend a few days after symptoms fade. Some people shed detectable live virus for up to a week after symptoms start, and rebound symptoms remain possible.
The Current Vaccine Formula
The 2024-2025 COVID vaccine targets the KP.2 strain, a descendant of the JN.1 lineage. The FDA initially recommended a JN.1-based formula but shifted to KP.2 after that strain became more prevalent during the summer of 2024. This is a single-target vaccine rather than the bivalent formulas used in previous years. If you haven’t received this updated version, it’s the one currently available at pharmacies and clinics.
Long COVID Remains a Consideration
Even with milder acute illness, long COVID hasn’t gone away. A global analysis of 144 studies found that roughly 36% of people who had COVID reported experiencing lingering symptoms at some point during follow-up. In North America specifically, that figure was about 30%. These numbers represent the percentage of people who ever experienced long COVID symptoms, not necessarily those still dealing with them at any given moment, so the rate of ongoing illness is likely lower.
Three factors stood out as the strongest predictors of long COVID: being unvaccinated, which roughly doubled the odds; infection with a pre-Omicron variant; and being female. Vaccination remains the most controllable of those risk factors. While Omicron-era infections carry lower long COVID risk than earlier strains, the risk hasn’t dropped to zero, which is worth weighing even when community transmission is low.
What a “Very Low” Reading Actually Means
A Very Low wastewater signal doesn’t mean COVID is gone. The virus continues to circulate at a baseline level, and seasonal surges are still expected. Historically, cases tend to rise in summer (when people gather indoors in air conditioning) and again in winter. The current quiet period is typical for spring and is a reasonable time to make sure your vaccination is current and your supply of home tests hasn’t expired. COVID follows a pattern now, and right now, the pattern is calm.