COVID-19 has not disappeared, but right now viral activity in the United States is at its lowest levels. CDC wastewater surveillance, which tracks viral particles in sewage as a real-time measure of how much virus is circulating, puts national COVID-19 activity at 1.29 on a scale where anything under 2.0 counts as “very low.” That said, the virus follows a predictable pattern of surges, and the next one is likely just months away.
The Seasonal Pattern Is Now Established
After five years of data, researchers have confirmed that COVID-19 follows a biannual cycle in the United States, with peaks in late summer (July through September) and winter (December through February). A 2025 analysis published in the CDC’s Emerging Infectious Diseases journal found that roughly 65% of all COVID detections occurred during those six combined months, even though they represent only half the year. The pattern held across multiple regions and is expected to continue as long as the virus keeps evolving rapidly.
So while spring is typically a quiet period, history suggests activity will climb again by midsummer. The winter surge tends to be the sharper of the two, with hospitalizations peaking in late December or early January. If you’re wondering whether COVID is “coming back,” the honest answer is that it never fully left. It ebbs and flows on a roughly six-month cycle.
Where Things Stand Globally
Worldwide, reported cases are low. The WHO recorded just 25,201 cases in the 28 days leading up to April 5, 2026, though that number reflects only what 75 countries actively report. A handful of countries have seen upticks: Brazil reported nearly 13,800 cases in a recent 28-day period, up from about 9,200 the period before. Lithuania and Sweden also saw modest increases. None of these represent the kind of explosive international surge that would signal a major new wave heading toward the U.S., but they’re a reminder that the virus continues circulating everywhere.
Global deaths are also trending downward. Weekly reported COVID deaths fell from 240 in late March 2026 to 154 by early April, a steady decline. That 848 deaths reported worldwide over 28 days represents a drop of 682 compared to the previous period.
Hospitalizations Are Lower, but Age Still Matters
The most recent comprehensive hospitalization data, covering October 2023 through April 2024, showed the lowest cumulative COVID hospitalization rates for any fall-winter period since surveillance began in 2020. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that age remains the single biggest risk factor, and the gap is enormous. During that same period, the peak weekly hospitalization rate for adults 75 and older was 58.9 per 100,000, which was nearly 25 times higher than the rate for adults 18 to 49. The cumulative rate for the oldest group approached one hospitalization for every 100 people, higher than any previous October-through-April period for that age group. In other words, overall severity has dropped for most people, but the virus still hits older adults hard.
What the Current Variants Look Like
The virus continues to evolve within the Omicron family. The WHO currently lists JN.1 as a variant of interest, with sublineages like KP.3.1.1 and LP.8.1 under monitoring. These are not dramatically different from previous Omicron strains, and the symptoms they cause remain broadly similar.
Current COVID symptoms include fever or chills, a persistent new cough, sore throat, runny or blocked nose, body aches, headache, fatigue, shortness of breath, and loss of smell or taste. Some people also experience diarrhea, nausea, or loss of appetite. For most vaccinated or previously infected adults, the illness resembles a moderate cold or flu that resolves within a week or two.
Vaccines and Treatment in 2025-2026
The 2024-2025 COVID vaccines were reformulated to target the Omicron JN.1 lineage, with the Moderna and Pfizer versions using the KP.2 strain and Novavax using JN.1. Adults 65 and older are recommended to get a second dose six months after their first updated shot, with a minimum interval of two months. People aged six months to 64 with moderate or severe immune suppression follow the same schedule and can receive additional doses based on discussion with their doctor.
Antiviral treatment remains available, but its effectiveness against current variants is uncertain. The major clinical trials that established the antiviral’s benefit were conducted in unvaccinated people during the Delta wave, a very different situation from today’s highly vaccinated population facing Omicron subvariants. It may still help high-risk individuals, but the evidence base doesn’t directly apply to the current landscape.
What to Do if You Get Sick
The CDC simplified its respiratory virus guidance in March 2024, and the same rules apply now. If you develop symptoms, stay home and away from others. You can return to normal activities once your symptoms have been improving for at least 24 hours and any fever has been gone for 24 hours without medication. For the five days after you resume your routine, the CDC encourages extra precautions: wearing a well-fitting mask, improving ventilation, keeping distance from others when possible, and considering a test to confirm you’re no longer infectious.
The Bottom Line on Timing
Spring 2026 is a quiet period for COVID in the U.S., with wastewater data confirming very low viral activity. But the biannual pattern strongly suggests a summer uptick beginning around July, followed by a larger winter wave starting in December. The virus is not surging right now, but it is not gone. If you’re over 65 or immunocompromised and haven’t gotten an updated vaccine, the calm months before the next wave are the practical window to do it.