As of mid-April 2026, COVID-19 is not on the rise in the United States. Wastewater surveillance from the CDC shows viral activity levels at “Very Low,” with a national score of 1.10 on the agency’s tracking scale. This is consistent with a seasonal lull that typically follows winter peaks, and there are no signals pointing to an imminent surge.
What Wastewater Data Shows Right Now
The most reliable real-time indicator of COVID activity in the U.S. is wastewater monitoring, which detects viral particles shed by infected people regardless of whether they get tested. For the week ending April 18, 2026, the CDC rated national COVID-19 wastewater viral activity as “Very Low,” the lowest tier on its scale. For context, influenza A and RSV are also sitting at Very Low levels, meaning all three major respiratory viruses are quiet heading into spring.
Wastewater data has become the go-to metric because far fewer people take formal COVID tests now compared to earlier in the pandemic. Home test results rarely get reported, so case counts alone significantly undercount infections. Wastewater captures community-level transmission whether people test or not.
Globally, Numbers Are Also Low
The World Health Organization reported just 25,201 COVID cases worldwide in the 28-day period ending April 5, 2026, a fraction of what earlier waves produced. A few countries have seen modest increases compared to mid-2025. Brazil reported roughly 13,800 cases over 28 days, up from about 9,200 in the same window the previous summer. Lithuania and Sweden saw smaller upticks of a few hundred cases. None of these represent the kind of sharp acceleration that signals a new wave.
Which Variants Are Circulating
The dominant family of variants right now belongs to the XFG lineage. XFG.1.1 accounts for about 32% of sequenced cases in the U.S., with plain XFG making up another 13% and XFG.14.1 at 8%. Several other XFG sublineages each represent 4 to 5% of cases. The PQ lineage variants collectively make up a smaller share. No single variant has shown the kind of rapid growth advantage that preceded past surges.
Earlier in the respiratory season, the CDC flagged a divergent lineage called BA.3.2 that had been gaining ground internationally and showing moderate ability to dodge existing immunity. As of now, the XFG family has become predominant, and BA.3.2 did not trigger the kind of large wave some experts were watching for.
What the Winter Season Looked Like
The CDC’s seasonal outlook, based on modeling and input from 20 epidemiologists, projected that peak COVID hospitalizations for the 2025-2026 winter season would be similar to the previous year. That assessment held with moderate confidence, factoring in population immunity levels, vaccination uptake, and the possibility of new immune-evasive variants. The winter peak appears to have come and gone without a major departure from recent seasonal patterns.
COVID now follows a broadly predictable seasonal rhythm in the U.S., with a summer bump and a larger winter peak. The current lull fits that pattern. The next period of elevated transmission will likely arrive sometime in the summer months, though the size of any wave depends heavily on which variants emerge and how much population immunity has waned by then.
How Well the Current Vaccine Works
The 2024-2025 updated COVID vaccine provided moderate protection. Among adults 18 and older, it reduced the risk of an emergency department or urgent care visit by about 33% in the first four months after vaccination. For adults 65 and older with healthy immune systems, protection against hospitalization was stronger, at 45 to 46%. For older adults with weakened immune systems, that figure was around 40%.
These numbers are lower than the early pandemic vaccines delivered against original strains, but they still meaningfully reduce the chance of a severe outcome, particularly for older adults and those with chronic conditions. Protection does wane over time, which is why updated formulations are released before each respiratory season.
Symptoms With Current Strains
The symptom profile of COVID hasn’t changed dramatically with newer variants. Most people experience some combination of sore throat, congestion, cough, fatigue, and body aches. Fever, headache, shortness of breath, and loss of taste or smell remain possible but aren’t universal. Nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea occur in some cases. Symptoms typically appear 2 to 14 days after exposure and often start mild before potentially worsening over the first few days.
Vaccination status can influence how symptoms present. Vaccinated individuals who get infected tend to have milder, shorter illnesses on average, though breakthrough infections can still be unpleasant.
What to Do If You Get Sick
CDC guidance recommends staying home and away from others, including household members who aren’t sick, if you develop respiratory symptoms. Wearing a well-fitting mask and keeping physical distance from others helps reduce transmission when you do need to be around people. These precautions apply whether you test positive for COVID, flu, or RSV, since the approach to limiting spread is the same for all three.
If you’re in a higher-risk group (65 and older, immunocompromised, or living with certain chronic conditions), getting tested early matters because antiviral treatment is most effective when started within the first few days of symptoms.