COVID-19 is not on the rise right now. As of mid-April 2026, national wastewater surveillance shows viral activity at a “Very Low” level, scored at 1.10 on the CDC’s tracking scale. Test positivity sits at just 1.3% for the week ending April 18, down from 1.7% the previous week. By every major measure, COVID transmission in the United States is low and trending downward.
What the Numbers Show
The CDC tracks COVID activity through two primary signals: wastewater monitoring and laboratory test positivity. Both tell the same story right now. Wastewater data, which captures viral particles shed by infected people regardless of whether they get tested, places the country at its lowest activity tier. Lab test positivity at 1.3% is well below the levels seen during seasonal surges, which have historically pushed that number above 10% or higher.
Globally, the picture is similar. The WHO reported just 848 COVID deaths worldwide in the 28 days leading up to April 5, 2026, a decrease of 682 from the prior 28-day period. Weekly reported deaths stood at 154. These are a fraction of what the world experienced during earlier phases of the pandemic, though the WHO has cautioned that reduced surveillance and testing in many countries make the true picture harder to assess.
Circulating Variants
The dominant variant family in the U.S. right now is XFG. Its sublineages collectively account for the vast majority of sequenced cases. XFG.1.1 alone makes up roughly 32% of circulating virus, with the parent XFG lineage at 13% and several other XFG offshoots filling out smaller shares. A handful of non-XFG lineages, including PQ.17 and NB.1.8.1, each represent single-digit percentages.
None of these variants have triggered alarm from public health agencies or shown signs of causing more severe illness than their predecessors. The virus continues to mutate and produce new sublineages, which is expected behavior for a respiratory virus circulating at endemic levels.
Current Symptoms to Watch For
The symptom profile for current variants looks largely the same as it has for the past couple of years. The most common signs include fever or chills, cough, sore throat, congestion or runny nose, and fatigue. Some people experience muscle aches, headache, shortness of breath, nausea, or diarrhea. Loss of taste or smell still appears on the CDC’s list but has become less commonly reported with recent variants. Symptoms typically show up 2 to 14 days after exposure.
Because these symptoms overlap heavily with colds, flu, and allergies, testing is the only reliable way to confirm a COVID infection. At-home rapid tests remain widely available.
What to Do If You Test Positive
The CDC’s current guidance treats COVID similarly to other respiratory viruses. You can return to normal activities once your symptoms have been improving for at least 24 hours and any fever has resolved without medication. After that, the CDC recommends taking extra precautions for the next five days: wearing a well-fitting mask around others, improving ventilation when indoors, keeping some distance from people, and practicing good hand hygiene.
This is a significant simplification from the earlier five-day mandatory isolation rules. The updated approach, introduced in early 2024, aligns COVID guidance with recommendations for flu and other common respiratory infections.
Vaccine Status
The most recent COVID vaccine formula, approved for the 2024-2025 season, targets the KP.2 strain, a descendant of the Omicron JN.1 lineage. The FDA initially recommended a JN.1-based vaccine but shifted to KP.2 after the virus continued evolving and cases rose during the summer of 2024. The current circulating variants have continued to drift from KP.2, which is typical. Vaccines still provide meaningful protection against severe illness even when they don’t perfectly match the latest sublineages, similar to how flu vaccines work.
Why Wastewater Data Matters More Than Case Counts
If you’re checking whether COVID is rising or falling, wastewater surveillance is now the most reliable signal. Traditional case counts depend on people getting tested and having those results reported, and both of those have dropped dramatically as home testing became the norm and reporting requirements eased. Most people who catch COVID today never show up in official case tallies.
Wastewater monitoring sidesteps that problem entirely. Every community sheds viral genetic material into sewage systems when infections are present, whether people test or not. The CDC samples wastewater treatment plants across the country and uses the concentration of viral material to estimate community-level transmission. When that number reads “Very Low,” it means the virus is circulating at minimal levels in most of the country. Regional spikes can still happen, so checking your state or county’s wastewater data on the CDC site gives you a more localized picture than the national average alone.