COVID-19 is not on the rise in Florida. As of early March 2026, viral activity in the state is classified as “Very Low” based on wastewater monitoring, and the epidemic trend is declining. Florida’s trajectory mirrors the national picture, where COVID transmission is also falling.
What Wastewater Data Shows
The most reliable real-time indicator of COVID activity is wastewater surveillance, since it captures viral levels from entire communities regardless of whether people get tested. The CDC’s National Wastewater Surveillance System tracks 13 monitoring sites across Florida, and for the week ending February 28, 2026, all 13 reported “Very Low” viral activity.
The CDC scores wastewater viral activity on a scale with five levels: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High. Florida currently sits at the bottom of that scale. For context, levels would need to more than double just to reach the “Low” category, and roughly quadruple to hit “Moderate.”
Florida’s Epidemic Trend Is Declining
Beyond raw viral levels, the CDC also estimates whether the epidemic is growing or shrinking in each state using a metric called Rt, which measures how many new infections each existing case generates. When Rt is below 1.0, the outbreak is contracting. As of March 3, 2026, Florida’s epidemic trend is categorized as “Declining,” with only a 9% probability that COVID transmission is growing. The national Rt estimate sits at 0.90, confirming a similar downward trend across the country.
Why County-Level Data Is Limited
If you’re looking for a breakdown of which Florida counties have the most cases right now, that information is harder to come by than it used to be. The CDC stopped publishing county-level case and death counts in May 2023 when the federal public health emergency expired. That means there’s no current dashboard showing case numbers for Miami-Dade, Broward, Orange, or any other individual county.
Wastewater monitoring partially fills this gap, but only 13 sites cover the entire state, so granular local tracking isn’t what it was during the pandemic’s peak years. If you want a sense of activity in your specific area, the statewide wastewater trend is your best available proxy.
What Low Activity Means in Practice
Very Low wastewater levels don’t mean COVID has disappeared. The virus continues to circulate year-round, and individual infections still occur even when community transmission is minimal. But at current levels, your odds of encountering the virus in daily life are significantly lower than during seasonal surges, which in Florida have historically peaked in summer (driven by people gathering indoors to escape the heat) and again in winter around the holidays.
For people who are immunocompromised or at higher risk of severe illness, low community transmission is a good time to ensure vaccinations are up to date before the next seasonal uptick. Testing remains available at pharmacies and through at-home kits if you develop symptoms, even during periods of low activity.