Yes, the 2023-2024 El Niño ended in June 2024. The tropical Pacific then shifted into La Niña, which has been the dominant pattern since late 2024. As of early 2026, that La Niña is also winding down, and forecasters expect a return to neutral conditions within weeks, followed by a possible new El Niño later this year.
How the 2023-2024 El Niño Played Out
The most recent El Niño developed in May 2023 and lasted through June 2024. Its intensity peaked in December 2023 with a maximum Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) value of 2.0°C, making it a moderate event. For comparison, the major El Niño of 2015-2016 peaked at 2.6°C, and the famous 1997-1998 event hit 2.4°C. Despite being weaker than those predecessors, the 2023-2024 El Niño coincided with record-breaking global temperatures, partly because it layered on top of long-term warming trends.
The event followed a familiar trajectory: intensifying through the second half of 2023, peaking around December, then steadily declining through the first half of 2024 until ocean temperatures in the key monitoring region dropped back below the El Niño threshold.
What Replaced It: La Niña Through Early 2026
After El Niño faded, the Pacific swung in the opposite direction. A weak La Niña emerged by late 2024 (forecasters had placed the probability at 57% for the October-December 2024 window) and persisted into early 2025 and beyond. As of February 2026, below-average sea surface temperatures were still present in the east-central equatorial Pacific, and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center maintained an active La Niña Advisory.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology noted that this La Niña is close to its end. Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific eased back into neutral territory (between -0.80°C and +0.80°C) by mid-February 2026, and warming beneath the ocean surface suggests further decline in the coming weeks.
What “ENSO Neutral” Actually Means
NOAA officially declares El Niño or La Niña when the ONI, a rolling three-month average of sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific, stays above +0.5°C or below -0.5°C for five consecutive overlapping periods. When temperatures sit between those thresholds, the Pacific is considered neutral.
Neutral doesn’t mean the weather becomes perfectly average everywhere. It means the tropical Pacific isn’t pushing the atmosphere toward the predictable patterns that El Niño and La Niña create. Without those strong signals influencing storm tracks, rainfall, and jet stream positions, seasonal forecasts become harder to make with confidence. You lose the broad brushstrokes that let forecasters say things like “wetter than normal in the southern U.S.” or “drier across Australia.”
The Forecast: Neutral Now, El Niño by Summer
NOAA’s latest diagnostic discussion, issued in March 2026, projects a transition from La Niña to neutral conditions within weeks. Neutral is then favored through at least May-July 2026, with a 55% probability. Starting in the June-August 2026 window, El Niño is likely to emerge, with a 62% chance, and persist through at least the end of the year.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is slightly more cautious. While some models suggest El Niño development could begin as early as May, most maintain a neutral state heading into the Southern Hemisphere winter (June-August). The bureau emphasizes that forecast models tend to have large spreads at this time of year, meaning confidence will improve as autumn progresses in the Southern Hemisphere.
If a new El Niño does develop in the second half of 2026, it would mark a relatively quick turnaround: El Niño to La Niña to El Niño again in roughly two years. That kind of cycling isn’t unprecedented, but the speed and the backdrop of record global temperatures make the next event one forecasters are watching closely.
What This Means for Weather Patterns
During the current neutral transition period, the strong regional weather biases that La Niña brought (generally drier conditions across the southern United States, enhanced rainfall in parts of Australia and Southeast Asia) will fade. Seasonal outlooks will rely more on other climate drivers rather than the dominant Pacific signal.
If El Niño does return by late 2026, you can expect the classic pattern to reassert itself: increased rainfall and flooding risk along the U.S. Gulf Coast, drier conditions in Australia and parts of Southeast Asia, a quieter Atlantic hurricane season, and generally warmer global temperatures. A new El Niño stacking on top of already elevated ocean and atmospheric temperatures could push 2026 or 2027 into record-setting territory once again.