Yes, obesity is still increasing in the United States, though the picture is more nuanced than a simple upward line. The overall adult obesity rate has plateaued in recent years, hovering around 40%, but severe obesity (a BMI of 40 or higher) has climbed significantly, rising from 7.7% to 9.7% between 2013 and 2023. Nearly 1 in 10 American adults now has severe obesity, and the rates are even higher among certain age groups and demographics.
Where Adult Obesity Stands Now
Federal health data collected between August 2021 and August 2023 show that the overall age-adjusted prevalence of adult obesity hasn’t changed significantly since 2013–2014. That sounds like good news until you consider that it plateaued at an already historic high. The U.S. crossed the 40% threshold years ago, and rates have stayed there.
The more alarming shift is happening at the severe end of the spectrum. Severe obesity, defined as a BMI of 40 or above, jumped from 7.7% to 9.7% over roughly a decade. That increase is statistically significant. In practical terms, it means millions more Americans are carrying enough excess weight to dramatically raise their risk of heart disease, diabetes, joint problems, and certain cancers. Middle-aged adults (40 to 59) have the highest rate of severe obesity at 12%, and women are affected nearly twice as often as men: 12.1% compared to 6.7%.
Childhood Obesity Remains High
About 14.7 million children and adolescents ages 2 to 19 have obesity, representing 19.7% of that age group. The rates climb as kids get older: 12.7% among children ages 2 to 5, 20.7% among those 6 to 11, and 22.2% among teenagers 12 to 19. That means more than 1 in 5 American teenagers has obesity, a rate that would have been almost unthinkable a generation ago. Children with obesity are far more likely to carry it into adulthood, which helps explain why adult rates have remained stubbornly high.
Racial and Ethnic Gaps
Obesity does not affect all communities equally. Among adults 20 and older, nearly half of Black adults (49.6%) and Hispanic adults (44.8%) have obesity. The rate among white adults is 42.2%. Asian adults have the lowest prevalence at 17.4%, though researchers note that standard BMI cutoffs may underestimate health risks in this group because of differences in body composition.
These disparities reflect longstanding inequities in access to affordable healthy food, safe places to exercise, healthcare, and economic stability. They aren’t simply a matter of individual choices.
A Regional Divide
Geography matters too. In 2024, every single U.S. state had an adult obesity prevalence of at least 25%. The Midwest (35.9%) and South (34.5%) carry the highest regional rates, while the West (30.2%) and Northeast (30.3%) are somewhat lower. Mississippi and West Virginia are the only two states where obesity prevalence has hit 40% or above. Another 17 states, plus Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, fall between 35% and 40%.
The Numbers May Actually Be Worse
Many widely cited state-level obesity figures come from phone surveys where people self-report their height and weight. The problem: people tend to underestimate their weight by about a kilogram and overestimate their height by about a centimeter. When researchers compared self-reported survey data against actual physical measurements taken in clinical settings, the self-reported data underestimated the national obesity rate by 16% and the severe obesity rate by 23%. That gap translated to roughly 12 million uncounted cases of obesity, including 6.7 million cases of severe obesity. So the maps and state rankings you see in the news likely paint a rosier picture than reality.
What’s Driving the Trend
No single factor explains why obesity rates climbed so sharply over the past few decades and have stayed elevated. But diet plays a central role. Federal nutrition reviews have found that eating patterns heavy in ultra-processed foods are associated with greater body fat, larger waist circumference, higher BMI, and increased risk of overweight and obesity in both children and adults. Ultra-processed foods now make up a majority of calories consumed in the typical American diet, and they’re engineered to be cheap, convenient, and easy to overeat.
Beyond food, the modern environment stacks the deck in other ways: more sedentary jobs, longer commutes, neighborhoods built around cars rather than walking, chronic stress, disrupted sleep, and the rising cost of fresh produce relative to fast food. These factors interact with genetics and biology in ways that make sustained weight loss extremely difficult for most people, which is a large part of why the obesity rate has refused to come back down even as public awareness has grown.
The Financial Toll
Obesity costs the U.S. healthcare system nearly $173 billion per year. That figure includes higher rates of hospitalizations, prescription medications, and treatment for obesity-related conditions like type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, sleep apnea, and certain cancers. On an individual level, adults with obesity pay thousands more in annual medical costs than those at a moderate weight.
Projections for the Coming Decade
Forecasting models suggest the trend won’t reverse on its own. Among adults 65 and older, obesity prevalence sat at about 30.6% in 2022. Depending on the modeling approach, projections for 2035 range from 35% to as high as 44% in that age group alone. An aging population with rising obesity rates will place enormous pressure on Medicare, hospitals, and the long-term care system. These are projections, not certainties, and the arrival of new weight-loss medications could alter the trajectory. But without large-scale changes in diet, environment, and access to treatment, the baseline trend points upward.