No, there is not a COVID surge right now. As of mid-April 2026, national wastewater surveillance from the CDC shows COVID-19 viral activity at “Very Low” levels across the United States. Infections are declining or likely declining in 37 states, holding steady in 5, and only one state, Colorado, shows signs of possible growth.
What Wastewater Data Shows
The CDC tracks COVID-19 trends by measuring virus levels in wastewater, which captures infections from people who never get tested. For the week of April 12 to April 18, 2026, the national reading falls in the lowest category on a five-tier scale that ranges from Very Low to Very High. This is about as quiet as COVID activity gets.
Colorado is the only state where infections are estimated to be growing, with a 79% probability of increase. Even that signal is modest and doesn’t necessarily point to an impending wave. Every other state is either stable or trending downward.
Variants Currently Circulating
The dominant strains in the U.S. right now all belong to the XFG family. For the four-week period ending April 11, 2026, the breakdown looks like this:
- XFG.1.1: about 32% of sequenced cases
- XFG: about 13%
- XFG.14.1: about 8%
None of these variants have been flagged for unusual severity. The symptom profile remains consistent with what most people have experienced in recent years: fever, cough, sore throat, congestion, fatigue, body aches, and sometimes loss of taste or smell. Symptoms typically appear 2 to 14 days after exposure and range from mild to severe.
Why Activity Tends to Rise and Fall
COVID follows a loosely seasonal pattern now, with the largest surges tending to hit in winter months when people spend more time indoors and immunity from previous infections or vaccines wanes. Summer often brings a smaller bump as well. Spring and fall have generally been quieter periods, which tracks with the current low activity levels.
That said, new variants can disrupt these patterns. A strain that’s different enough from previous ones to dodge existing immunity can spark a wave at any time of year. Monitoring the CDC’s wastewater dashboard is the most reliable way to spot early signals of a surge before hospitalization data catches up.
Vaccines and Prevention
The CDC recommends the 2025-2026 COVID-19 vaccine for everyone 6 months and older, with the decision left to individuals rather than framed as a universal mandate. The recommendation is strongest for people 65 and older, those at high risk for severe illness, pregnant individuals, people who have never been vaccinated, and anyone wanting to reduce their risk of long COVID.
If you recently had COVID, you can wait three months before getting vaccinated, counting from when symptoms started or from a positive test if you had no symptoms. People with weakened immune systems have a separate, more intensive vaccine schedule.
Testing and Treatment If You Get Sick
Home antigen tests are still the fastest way to check. If you have symptoms and test negative, the FDA recommends testing again 48 hours later. Two negative tests taken two days apart give a reliable result for symptomatic people. If you have no symptoms but were exposed, three tests spaced 48 hours apart are recommended for confidence.
Antiviral treatment remains available for people with mild to moderate COVID who are at risk of getting sicker. Eligibility requires being at least 18 (or at least 12 and weighing over 88 pounds), having at least one risk factor for severe disease, and not already being hospitalized. Treatment works best when started within the first few days of symptoms, so testing early matters if you fall into a higher-risk group.
What to Watch For
Most COVID infections right now resolve without complications, but certain warning signs still warrant emergency care: difficulty breathing, persistent chest pain or pressure, new confusion, or an inability to stay awake. Pale, gray, or bluish skin, lips, or nail beds can also signal that oxygen levels are dropping.
For now, the national picture is calm. The combination of low wastewater signals, declining trends in nearly every state, and no new high-concern variants means the U.S. is not experiencing a surge. That can change quickly, especially heading into summer, so checking the CDC’s wastewater tracker periodically gives you the earliest possible warning if conditions shift.