The world is producing more food than ever, yet nearly 300 million people faced acute hunger in 2024. That contradiction sits at the heart of the global food situation: there is no overall shortage of food in terms of raw production, but serious shortages exist in specific regions where conflict, extreme weather, and economic crises block people from growing or buying what they need.
Global Production Is at Record Levels
The FAO forecasts global cereal production in 2025 at just over 3 billion tonnes, a record. Wheat output has hit an all-time high, driven by better-than-expected yields in Argentina, Canada, and the European Union. Coarse grains like corn are also at a new peak. Rice production for 2025/26 is forecast at 561.6 million tonnes on a milled basis, up 2 percent from the previous year and another record.
Global cereal consumption is also rising, forecast at about 2.94 billion tonnes for 2025/26, which is comfortably below what the world is growing. In pure arithmetic terms, farmers are producing enough calories to feed everyone on the planet. The problem has never really been about total output. It’s about where the food is, who can afford it, and whether supply chains can deliver it to the people who need it most.
Where Shortages Are Real and Severe
In 2024, more than 295 million people across 53 countries experienced acute hunger, an increase of nearly 14 million from 2023. The Global Report on Food Crises identifies four main drivers: armed conflict, economic shocks, climate extremes, and forced displacement. These factors overlap in already fragile regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, the Horn of Africa, parts of the Middle East, and sections of South and Southeast Asia.
Conflict is the single largest driver. When fighting destroys farmland, cuts off trade routes, or forces millions from their homes, local food systems collapse regardless of what global harvests look like. Economic shocks compound the problem. A country that depends on imported grain but watches its currency lose value against the dollar will see food prices spike even when international commodity markets are stable.
Prices Have Dropped Globally but Not Locally
International food commodity prices have fallen significantly from their 2022 peak. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 123.9 points in early 2026, down nearly 23 percent from the all-time high reached in March 2022 after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine disrupted Black Sea grain exports. On paper, the crisis looks like it’s easing.
But international prices measured in U.S. dollars don’t reflect what people actually pay at the market. Domestic food prices measured in local currencies continue to climb in many low-income countries, feeding a cost-of-living crisis for households that already spend the majority of their income on food. A family in Egypt or Nigeria doesn’t benefit from cheaper wheat futures if their own currency has weakened or if local supply chains add layers of cost. Sugar and rice have been notable exceptions to the global price decline, with world market prices rising by double digits in recent months due to production disruptions linked partly to El Niño, new trade restrictions, and stockpiling by nervous governments.
That stockpiling behavior itself creates problems. When food-importing countries rush to build reserves and exporting countries restrict sales, it triggers price swings that destabilize the very markets everyone depends on.
Fertilizer Costs Are Squeezing Farmers
One pressure point worth watching is the cost of fertilizer, which directly affects how much food farmers can grow. Nitrogen-based fertilizers averaged $339 per tonne in the first five months of 2025, up 15 percent from the same period the year before, driven by rising natural gas prices. Urea and nitrate prices jumped by a similar margin. Potash fertilizers held roughly steady at about $285 per tonne but are expected to climb as seasonal demand shifts and maintenance shutdowns at mines in Belarus and Russia tighten supply.
When fertilizer becomes more expensive relative to what farmers earn selling their crops, they use less of it. In the EU, the cost of a common nitrogen fertilizer relative to wheat prices sat 45 percent above its 2019 baseline in mid-2025. In the United States, the urea-to-corn cost ratio was 43 percent above baseline. In China, rising domestic urea prices pushed the affordability index to 114 percent of baseline. These ratios matter because they signal whether farmers will cut back on inputs next season, which could eventually reduce yields even if weather cooperates.
Grocery Shelves in Wealthier Countries Are Well Stocked
If you’re searching this question from the United States, Canada, or Western Europe, the short answer for your local grocery store is no, there is not a meaningful shortage. Consumers in the U.S. reported a 9.5 percent out-of-stock rate for food items in 2024, down from 12.3 percent in 2023 and 19.3 percent in 2022. That 2022 figure reflected lingering pandemic disruptions, avian flu outbreaks, geopolitical turmoil, and the food inflation spike. The steady decline since then reflects a food supply chain that has largely recovered its stability.
A 9.5 percent stockout rate means that roughly one in ten times you look for a specific product, it won’t be on the shelf. That’s an inconvenience, not a shortage. It typically means a particular brand or size is temporarily unavailable, not that an entire category of food has disappeared. The food system in wealthy nations has enough redundancy, with multiple suppliers, large inventories, and diversified import sources, to absorb most disruptions without consumers noticing much beyond occasional gaps.
Ukraine’s Grain Exports Have Partially Recovered
Ukraine, one of the world’s largest grain exporters before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, has clawed back much of its export capacity. In the first half of the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukrainian grain exports returned to average pre-invasion levels. However, exports are expected to taper off in the second half of the year because the country has drawn down its surplus stockpiles and must now rely solely on current production volumes. Ukraine’s ability to maintain export levels going forward depends heavily on whether farmers can plant and harvest without major disruption, something that remains uncertain given the ongoing war.
The Core Problem Is Distribution, Not Production
The world grows more than enough food to feed 8 billion people. It has done so for years. The gap between production and hunger is filled with conflict zones where aid trucks can’t pass, currencies that have lost half their value in two years, ports that lack cold storage, roads that wash out in the rainy season, and trade policies that prioritize national stockpiles over international supply. Roughly 295 million people are caught in that gap right now. For them, the shortage is as real and dangerous as it gets, even as global silos overflow with grain.