No, there is not a soybean shortage. Global soybean supplies are healthy heading into the 2025/26 marketing year, with world production projected at 425.7 million metric tons and ending stocks rising to 124.4 million metric tons. That stockpile is growing, not shrinking, which is the opposite of what you’d see during a genuine shortage.
Still, the soybean market has been anything but calm. Trade disputes, shifting biofuel demand, and planting decisions by U.S. farmers have all created turbulence that can feel like a shortage even when the global math says otherwise.
Global Production Is at Record Levels
World soybean production for 2025/26 is forecast at nearly 426 million metric tons, up 3.1 million tons from the previous projection. Brazil is the biggest reason for that increase. Despite early-season planting delays from irregular rainfall, Brazilian farmers expanded soybean acreage to 49.1 million hectares (up 3.1 percent year over year) and are on track for a record harvest of roughly 177 million metric tons. Key growing states like Mato Grosso and Goiás finished planting on schedule, and USDA analysts expect the early delays to have little to no impact on overall yields.
The United States also contributed to higher output, though American farmers actually pulled back on planting. Intended soybean acreage for 2025 came in at 83.5 million acres, a 4 percent drop from the 87 million acres planted in 2024. That decline didn’t create a supply problem because yields remained solid and global stocks were already comfortable heading into the season.
How Trade Tensions Reshuffled the Market
China is the world’s largest soybean buyer, and its purchasing decisions ripple through the entire market. Earlier in 2025, China suspended U.S. soybean imports for roughly six months as part of an escalating trade dispute. That didn’t reduce the total amount of soybeans available globally, but it dramatically rearranged who was buying from whom.
Brazil stepped in to fill the gap, boosting exports to China to levels not seen since 2018. Argentina, the world’s third-largest soybean producer, also picked up additional Chinese business during the suspension. For U.S. farmers, the result was a temporary loss of their biggest customer, which pressured domestic prices and left more beans sitting in American storage.
A trade deal reached later in 2025 committed China to purchasing 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the final two months of the year and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. That sounds like a lot, but 25 million tons is still 14 percent below the five-year average of 29 million tons that China bought from the U.S. between 2020 and 2024. And U.S. soybeans still face a 13 percent tariff, keeping South American suppliers competitive. U.S. exporters have responded by trying to diversify sales into East Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia.
Biofuel Is Using More Soybean Oil
One real source of tightness in the soybean complex isn’t about the beans themselves. It’s about soybean oil, which is increasingly being diverted into renewable diesel production. For the 2025/26 marketing year, soybean oil use in biomass-based diesel is forecast at 15.5 billion pounds, up 3.7 billion pounds from the prior year. That’s a significant jump.
Soybean oil now accounts for about 34 percent of total feedstock used in biomass-based diesel, though the vegetable oil share overall has been declining to around 55 percent as producers experiment with other fats and greases. This growing biofuel demand doesn’t mean soybeans are scarce, but it does mean more of the crop gets processed into fuel rather than food ingredients, which can push soybean oil prices higher at the grocery level even when bean supplies are ample.
Prices Are Actually Below Average
If there were a true shortage, you’d expect prices to be elevated. The opposite is happening. Soybean meal, the protein-rich product left after oil is extracted, has a long-run average price of $362 per ton dating back to 2007. Futures markets suggest prices will remain below that average well into next year.
For livestock producers, this is good news. Projected swine feed costs for 2025 are about 8 percent lower than 2024 levels. Each $10 per ton change in soybean meal price shifts feed costs by roughly $0.38 per hundredweight of pork produced, so the current pricing environment is easing pressure across the meat supply chain. Those lower feed costs tend to work their way into retail meat prices over time.
Processed Soy Ingredients Remain Available
For consumers wondering specifically about soy protein products, including the isolates used in plant-based meats, protein bars, and other packaged foods, supply conditions have remained adequate. Some manufacturers have selectively curtailed production at various points, but these decisions were driven by demand signals and cost management rather than raw material scarcity. Balanced availability, not shortage, has defined the processed soy ingredient market.
What Could Change the Picture
The comfortable supply situation depends on a few assumptions holding up. Brazil’s record harvest needs to come in close to projections. If a late-season drought hits key growing regions in South America (as happened in prior years), the math changes quickly. Weather remains the single biggest variable in soybean markets from year to year.
Trade policy is the other wildcard. The current U.S.-China deal provides some predictability through 2028, but tariffs can shift rapidly. If tensions escalate again and major buyers reroute purchases, certain regions could experience localized tightness even while the global supply picture looks fine. The 4 percent drop in U.S. planted acreage also bears watching. If American farmers continue shifting away from soybeans in favor of other crops, U.S. stocks could tighten over time, particularly if biofuel demand for soybean oil keeps climbing.
For now, though, world ending stocks of 124.4 million metric tons represent a substantial cushion. Production is outpacing consumption, stockpiles are growing, and prices reflect surplus rather than scarcity.