As of early 2026, COVID-19 activity in the United States is at a low point. National test positivity sits at 4.7% for the week ending February 14, 2026, down slightly from 5.1% the previous week. That’s well below the double-digit rates seen during major surges, and it signals that the virus is circulating at relatively manageable levels heading into late winter.
What the Numbers Show Right Now
The CDC tracks COVID through several signals, including wastewater surveillance and test positivity. Wastewater monitoring, which detects viral fragments in sewage and can pick up trends before people show up at clinics, uses a scale from “very low” to “very high.” These levels are updated weekly and vary by region, so your local picture may differ from the national average.
The current test positivity rate of 4.7% is a useful benchmark. For comparison, summer surges in recent years have pushed that number above 10-15%, and major winter waves have gone higher still. A rate under 5% generally reflects low community transmission, though it doesn’t capture infections caught by home tests or people who skip testing altogether.
Two Peaks Expected This Year
COVID has settled into a roughly predictable seasonal pattern. Modeling from the CDC’s COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub projects two periods of increased activity for 2025-2026: a first peak in late August 2025 and a second, typically larger peak in January 2026. Nationally, fall and winter COVID hospitalizations tend to peak in late December or early January.
The CDC expects the peak weekly hospitalization rate for the 2025-2026 season to be similar to or slightly higher than last year’s. If no significantly immune-evasive variant emerges, modeling estimates a peak hospitalization rate between 3.8 and 5.9 per 100,000 people. If a new variant does appear with moderate ability to dodge existing immunity, that range climbs to 6.7 to 9.5 per 100,000. The overall combined burden from COVID, flu, and RSV is expected to land within about 20% of last season’s peak.
Variants Circulating Now
The WHO currently lists KP.3.1.1, NB.1.8.1, and XFG as variants under monitoring. None of these have triggered the kind of alarm that earlier variants like Delta or the original Omicron wave did. The virus continues to evolve, but recent variants have generally caused illness that looks similar to what Omicron lineages have produced over the past couple of years.
Symptom profiles for Omicron-related variants tend to center on sore throat, cough, and fever. Loss of smell and taste, once a hallmark of earlier COVID strains, is far less common now. Only about 13% of Omicron cases reported that symptom, compared to roughly 34% during the Delta era. Sore throat, on the other hand, became nearly twice as likely with Omicron infections. Most current cases feel like a cold or mild flu for vaccinated or previously infected people.
How Well the Vaccines Are Holding Up
The 2024-2025 updated vaccines perform about as well as the previous year’s formula. At their strongest point, roughly four weeks after vaccination, they reduce the risk of infection by about 45%, emergency department visits by 45%, and hospitalization or death by 58%. That protection fades over time. By 10 weeks, hospitalization protection drops to about 50%, and by 20 weeks it’s around 34%.
These numbers mean the vaccine won’t reliably prevent you from catching COVID, but it does meaningfully cut the odds of a severe outcome, especially in the first few months. That’s why timing matters. If you’re planning to get vaccinated before the winter peak, late September or October tends to line up well with the projected January surge.
What to Do If You Get Sick
The CDC simplified its respiratory illness guidance in early 2024, and those recommendations still apply. If you test positive or develop symptoms, stay home and away from others. You can return to normal activities once your symptoms have been improving for at least 24 hours and any fever has resolved without medication.
For the five days after you resume your routine, the CDC recommends extra precautions: wearing a well-fitting mask around others, improving ventilation where you can, washing hands frequently, and keeping some distance from people who are vulnerable. These steps apply to COVID, flu, and RSV alike, reflecting how the guidance now treats respiratory viruses as a group rather than singling out COVID for stricter rules.
Putting It in Perspective
COVID hasn’t disappeared, but the pattern has become more predictable. Low-level circulation through spring, a moderate summer bump, and a larger winter wave is the rhythm the U.S. has seen for the past two years. Right now, in late winter 2026, the country is on the downslope of the seasonal peak, with test positivity declining week over week. There is no unusual spike at the national level, though local conditions can vary. Keeping an eye on your region’s wastewater data, which the CDC publishes weekly, is the most reliable way to know what’s happening where you live.