What Countries Are in Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model?

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) describes how countries move from high birth and death rates to low ones as they develop. Stage 5 is the point where births fall so low that deaths outnumber them and the population begins to shrink.1Population Education. Stage 5, Demographic Transition Model – Population Education The countries usually placed there are wealthy, long-lived societies clustered in East Asia and Southern and Eastern Europe, including Japan, South Korea, Germany, Italy, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Croatia, Ukraine, and Russia.2World Population Review. Stage 5 Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Countries 2026 The stage was added to the model later, and demographers still argue over whether it is a permanent stage or a passing phase.3Albert Blog. The Demographic Transition Model: AP® Human Geography Review

What Puts a Country in Stage 5

The defining test is births versus deaths. Stage 5 is marked by very low birth rates, low death rates, and natural population decline.4World Population Review. Stage 5 Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Countries 2026 Once the birth rate falls below the death rate, the population loses people each year before migration is counted.5Population Education. Stage 5, Demographic Transition Model – Population Education Demographers call this natural decrease: it counts only births and deaths.6World Population Review. Stage 5 Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Countries 2026

Total population change is a different measure, because it also adds immigrants and subtracts emigrants. Immigration can offset the decline, so a Stage 5 country’s total population may hold steady or even grow.7World Population Review. Stage 5 Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Countries 2026

Stage 4 is the stage just before. Births and deaths are both low and roughly balance, so the population is stable. Stage 5 tips past that balance into natural decline.

A falling birth rate alone doesn’t get a country there. A country whose birth rate has dropped sharply is still in Stage 4 if births remain at or above deaths. A country with a young population can have low birth rates and still add people naturally, because many young adults are having children while few people are old enough to die.

The death rate in Stage 5 climbs not because people are less healthy but because a larger share of the population is old. A country can therefore have a long life expectancy and still record more deaths than births.

Countries Commonly Placed in Stage 5

Most countries listed as Stage 5 are in Southern and Eastern Europe.19World Population Review. Stage 5 Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Countries 2026 The other cluster is East Asia, led by Japan.20World Population Review. Stage 5 Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Countries 2026 Japan is the textbook example, with the most advanced population aging in the world.

Lists vary between textbooks and websites, so treat any list as examples rather than an official roster. No official body assigns countries to stages, and sources use different years of data. A country near the line can flip between Stage 4 and Stage 5 from one year to the next.

Why Birth Rates Fall So Low

A population replaces itself at about 2.1 births per woman, called the replacement level.21PubMed Central. THE SECOND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY: A Review and Appraisal The figure is a little above 2 because two children are needed to replace two parents, and some children die before adulthood or never have children themselves. A country can even sit below it for years without shrinking right away, because a large group of adults of childbearing age keeps births coming for a time.

Japan, Germany, Russia, and several Eastern European countries average about 1.2 to 1.5.22Varsity Tutors. The Demographic Transition Model South Korea fell from the highest fertility among comparable countries in 1960 to the lowest by 2022.23PubMed Central. Demographic transition in South Korea: implications of falling birth rates A gap that size compounds. At 1.3 births per woman, each generation is about a third smaller than the last. The shrinkage speeds up because fewer parents have fewer children, which is why recovery takes decades even if births rise.

Housing is one pressure. Rising house prices block young adults from owning a home, which leads many to postpone children, and postponement adds up to fewer births overall.24PubMed Central. Rising House Prices, Falling Fertility? How Rising House Prices Widen Fertility Differences between Tenure Groups Space matters too: people in small, expensive apartments often decide a second or third child is out of reach.

Values play a part as well. One leading theory links very low fertility to a cultural shift toward individual freedom and self-fulfilment.25PubMed Central. THE SECOND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY: A Review and Appraisal Marriage and having children have become less tightly linked.26PubMed Central. THE SECOND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY: A Review and Appraisal

Eastern Europe took a double hit. In post-communist EU countries, mass emigration of young adults removed many would-be parents.27Population & Societies. Population decline in the post-communist countries of the European Union Low births combined with young people leaving for work abroad, and some countries also saw unusually high deaths among men. Together these shrink populations faster than births alone would.

What Life Looks Like in a Shrinking Country

Retirement costs rise while the workforce barely grows or shrinks.28Brookings. Budget Crunch: Population Aging in Rich Countries In France, Germany, and Japan, public pension costs must rise rapidly.29Brookings. Budget Crunch: Population Aging in Rich Countries30Journal of the Economics of Ageing. Pensions in an ageing society – Strains and pains of becoming older together

The strain is easiest to see in the dependency ratio, which compares the people too old or too young to work with the people working. Stage 5 pushes it up as retirees grow in number and workers shrink, so each worker’s taxes must cover more pensions. Many national pension systems are paid for by current workers’ taxes, not from savings built up by the retirees themselves. When there are fewer workers for each retiree, the government must raise taxes, cut benefits, or raise the retirement age.

Health care feels it too. Older people use more medical services and long-term care, so health spending rises as the population ages. At the same time, fewer young people are entering the workforce to become nurses and caregivers, creating shortages. Some countries are responding with more training, higher pay, or recruitment of care workers from abroad.

A falling working-age share can hurt innovation, investment, and economic growth.31Center for Global Development. The Perils of a Declining Labor Force Without effective policy, South Korea’s economy has about a 68% chance of not growing at all in the 2050s.32SSRN. Lowest-low Fertility and Super-aged Society: Causes and Impacts of the Extreme Population Structure, and Policy Options There are offsets. Aging countries adopt robots and automation faster,33National Bureau of Economic Research. Demographics and Automation and a smaller population uses less water, wood, and energy, easing pressure on ecosystems.34Earth.Org. Can Population Decline Stop Climate Change?

Can a Country Leave Stage 5

Financial incentives like child tax credits can raise fertility noticeably and have in many countries.35Institute for Family Studies. The Pronatal Benefits of Expanding the Child Tax Credit Expanding the US child tax credit could plausibly raise births 3 to 10%.36Institute for Family Studies. The Pronatal Benefits of Expanding the Child Tax Credit A child tax credit reduces what parents owe in taxes, or gives them cash, for each child they have. The idea is to lower the cost of raising a child so that people who already want another child can afford one. It works mostly by helping people carry out plans they already have rather than by changing what they want.

Even a 10% rise isn’t enough. Raising 1.3 by 10% gives about 1.4, which remains far below about 2.1 births per woman. Incentives slow decline rather than stop it.

Results can also mislead. In Australia, a baby bonus worked mainly among immigrant women.37Demographic Research. Who responds to fertility-boosting incentives? Evidence from pro-natal policies in Australia

One-off payments often disappoint. A one-time bonus may influence when a couple has a child more than whether they have one at all. Raising a child costs money for about two decades, so a single payment covers a small part of the total. Lasting effects likely need housing, childcare, tax, and education policy together, not one-off cash.38PubMed Central. Effects of incentive-based population policies on sustainability of China’s recent maternity insurance system reform: a system dynamics simulation

Immigration is the other lever. Immigrants can fill labor shortages and often add to public budgets because they tend to be working age.39VoxEU. What Countries Are in Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model? But immigration can’t solve population aging on its own, though it helps.40Migration Policy Institute. Population Aging Is Here. Immigration Can Offer Half an Answer Immigrants also age and retire, and very large inflows would be needed to hold the age structure steady.

Is Stage 5 a Real Stage

Some demographers argue very low fertility is temporary, caused by recessions or delayed childbearing.41Albert Blog. The Demographic Transition Model: AP® Human Geography Review Others see Stage 5 as real and expect more countries to join.42Albert Blog. The Demographic Transition Model: AP® Human Geography Review One theory predicts below-replacement fertility becomes permanent in wealthy societies.43PubMed Central. THE SECOND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY: A Review and Appraisal

The temporary view rests on timing. During hard economic times, people often put off having children, which pushes yearly birth numbers down. If they have their children later when conditions improve, the dip would be temporary. Timing matters in another way too: if women have children at older ages than before, the yearly fertility rate falls even if they eventually have the same number of children, because fewer births happen in each year while the shift is under way. Whether women catch up on delayed births is one of the central questions in the debate.

There is some evidence of rebound. Around 2000, fertility recovered in some places, such as the Scandinavian countries and France.44PubMed Central. THE SECOND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY: A Review and Appraisal Some research suggests fertility rises again at very high development.45Our World in Data. Demographic transition: Why is rapid population growth a temporary phenomenon? But if fertility stays below 2, populations will shrink in the long run.46Our World in Data. Demographic transition: Why is rapid population growth a temporary phenomenon?

What would settle it is whether delayed births are eventually made up later, and whether rebounds like France’s spread. Only a few societies have reached this point, so the answer is still open.