Approximately 39.2% of Americans will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lifetime, based on 2021–2023 data from the National Cancer Institute. That means roughly two out of every five people will receive a cancer diagnosis before they die. Globally, the figure is lower: about one in five people develop cancer during their lifetime, reflecting differences in life expectancy, screening access, and environmental exposures across countries.
How Risk Differs by Sex
Men face a slightly higher cancer rate than women. The annual incidence rate is about 488 new cases per 100,000 men compared to 426 per 100,000 women. Part of this gap comes down to the most common cancers each group faces. Prostate cancer leads all cancers with an estimated 333,830 new cases projected in 2026, while female breast cancer follows closely at 321,910. Lung cancer and colorectal cancer rank high for both sexes.
Age Is the Biggest Single Factor
Cancer is overwhelmingly a disease of aging. The median age at diagnosis is 67, meaning half of all cancer cases occur in people older than that. The numbers climb steeply with each decade: fewer than 26 cases per 100,000 people occur in age groups under 20, rising to about 350 per 100,000 among people aged 45 to 49, and surpassing 1,000 per 100,000 in age groups 60 and older.
Cancer in children and adolescents is rare. Only about 1% of all cancer diagnoses occur in people under 20. In 2024, an estimated 14,910 children and adolescents ages 0 to 19 were expected to be diagnosed in the United States, a rate of roughly 17 per 100,000 for children under 15. That rate climbs to about 75 per 100,000 among adolescents and young adults ages 15 to 39, but it’s still a fraction of what older adults experience.
The Most Common Types
Not all cancers carry equal weight in these statistics. The five most common cancers by incidence rate per 100,000 people are:
- Prostate: 123.2 per 100,000
- Breast: 70.0 per 100,000
- Lung and bronchus: 47.2 per 100,000
- Colon and rectum: 37.6 per 100,000
- Melanoma of the skin: 22.3 per 100,000
Together, these five types account for a large share of new diagnoses each year. Prostate cancer alone is expected to produce more than 333,000 new cases in 2026, though many of those cases are slow-growing and highly treatable.
How Much Cancer Is Preventable
A striking amount of cancer is tied to factors people can change. An American Cancer Society study found that 40% of cancer cases and nearly half of all cancer deaths in U.S. adults 30 and older were linked to modifiable risk factors. In concrete numbers, that translated to about 713,340 cancer cases and 262,120 cancer deaths in 2019 that were potentially avoidable.
Cigarette smoking was the single largest contributor, accounting for nearly 20% of all cancer cases and 30% of all cancer deaths. Excess body weight came second at 7.6% of cases, followed by alcohol consumption at 5.4%, UV radiation exposure at 4.6%, and physical inactivity at 3.1%. These aren’t abstract risk factors. They represent real, measurable portions of the 39% lifetime risk that could, in theory, be reduced through behavioral changes.
Global Differences in Cancer Risk
The 39.2% lifetime risk figure applies specifically to the United States. Worldwide, about one in five people develop cancer. The gap exists for several reasons. People in high-income countries live longer on average, giving cancer more time to develop. They also have broader access to screening, which catches cancers that might go undiagnosed elsewhere. And certain lifestyle factors common in wealthier nations, like higher rates of obesity and alcohol use, push incidence higher.
Breast cancer illustrates this divide clearly. In countries with very high development levels, one in 12 women will be diagnosed with breast cancer in their lifetime. In the lowest-income countries, only one in 27 women receives that diagnosis. That doesn’t necessarily mean breast cancer is less common in poorer countries. It can also mean fewer women have access to the mammograms that would detect it.
Survival Has Improved Significantly
The 39% lifetime risk number sounds alarming on its own, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. The five-year relative survival rate for all cancers combined has reached 70% for people diagnosed between 2015 and 2021 in the United States. That’s a milestone figure, reflecting decades of progress in early detection and treatment. It means that seven out of ten people diagnosed with cancer today are alive five years later, compared to what would be expected without the disease.
Survival varies enormously by cancer type. Some cancers, like early-stage prostate and breast cancer, have five-year survival rates well above 90%. Others, like pancreatic and lung cancers diagnosed at advanced stages, remain far more difficult to treat. So while the chance of getting cancer is high, the chance of surviving it has never been better.