There are currently no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. The National Hurricane Center, which tracks all Atlantic tropical activity in real time, shows no active storms, tropical depressions, or disturbances at this time.
That doesn’t mean the season is quiet by forecast. Here’s what you need to know about when storms form, what this season is expected to bring, and which areas face the greatest risk.
When Atlantic Storms Are Most Likely
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30. Activity can occur outside those dates, but the vast majority of storms form within that window. The statistical peak of the season is September 10, with the most active stretch running from mid-August through mid-October. If you’re checking for storms in the early or late months, a quiet map is completely normal.
Storms need ocean water of at least 26.5°C (about 80°F) to form, and over 90% develop in a narrow band between 27.5°C and 30.5°C. That’s why activity clusters in late summer and early fall, when Atlantic surface temperatures are at their warmest.
The 2025 Season Outlook
NOAA is forecasting an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 60% chance of above-normal activity and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The specific forecast calls for 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), 6 to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger, with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA places 70% confidence in those ranges.
For context, the current 30-year average for an Atlantic season is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Those averages were updated in 2021 using data from 1991 to 2020, up from the previous baseline of 12 named storms and 6 hurricanes. The trend line is moving toward busier seasons.
How Storms Are Named and Tracked
Atlantic storms receive names once they strengthen into tropical storms with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. The 2025 name list includes Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, and Jerry, among others. Names rotate on a six-year cycle, with particularly destructive storm names retired permanently.
The National Hurricane Center monitors developing systems using satellite imagery and aircraft reconnaissance. The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, better known as the Hurricane Hunters, flies WC-130J aircraft directly into tropical storms and hurricanes to collect data on wind speed, pressure, and structure. They’ve been doing this since 1944 and remain the only military unit that still flies into storms. NOAA also operates its own fleet of aircraft to gather environmental data that feeds forecast models.
Hurricane Categories and What They Mean
Hurricanes are rated on the Saffir-Simpson scale based on sustained wind speed. The five categories give you a quick sense of what to expect on the ground:
- Category 1 (74-95 mph): Roof shingles and gutters damaged, large tree branches snapped, power outages lasting days.
- Category 2 (96-110 mph): Major roof and siding damage to well-built homes, many trees uprooted, power loss lasting days to weeks.
- Category 3 (111-129 mph): Roof decking torn away, trees and roads blocked, electricity and water unavailable for days to weeks.
- Category 4 (130-156 mph): Severe structural damage, most trees downed, areas uninhabitable for weeks to months.
- Category 5 (157+ mph): Total roof failure and wall collapse on framed homes, complete isolation of residential areas, months without power.
Categories 3 through 5 are classified as “major hurricanes.” The scale measures wind damage only. It does not account for storm surge, rainfall flooding, or tornadoes, which often cause the most deaths.
Which Areas Get Hit Most Often
Florida is the most hurricane-prone state by a wide margin, with 274 named storms passing within 50 miles since 1880, including 115 hurricanes and 48 major hurricanes. In a typical year, Florida has roughly a 56% chance of a hurricane impact. For 2025, that probability rises to 61%.
After Florida, the states with the highest historical hurricane counts are North Carolina (68 hurricanes since 1880), Louisiana (68), Georgia (51), South Carolina (48), Mississippi (47), and Alabama (46). Louisiana stands out for the intensity of its hits, with 22 major hurricanes in the historical record.
In the Caribbean, the Bahamas and Cuba face the highest risk. The Bahamas have been hit by 106 hurricanes since 1880, 50 of them major. Cuba has seen 102 hurricanes, 41 major. The Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Haiti, and Jamaica all face meaningful risk each season as well. Bermuda, despite its small size and mid-ocean location, has been struck by 42 hurricanes in that same period.
How to Check for Storms
The fastest way to check current Atlantic activity is the National Hurricane Center’s website at nhc.noaa.gov, which updates its active cyclones page continuously. During storm events, the NHC issues advisories every six hours for active systems, increasing to every three hours when a storm nears land. A NOAA Weather Radio with tone alert will push warnings automatically, which is especially useful during overnight hours or power outages.
If you live in a hurricane-prone area, the basics of a preparedness kit are straightforward: one gallon of water per person per day for several days, a multi-day supply of non-perishable food, a battery-powered or hand-crank radio, flashlights, extra batteries, a first aid kit, a manual can opener, prescription medications, important documents in a waterproof container, cash, and a charged cell phone with a backup battery. Pet owners should include food and water for animals. Families with infants need formula, diapers, and wipes. Having this kit assembled before the season means you’re not scrambling when a storm is 48 hours out.