The biggest event for Earth in 2029 is the close flyby of asteroid Apophis on April 13, when a 1,100-foot-wide space rock will pass just 20,000 miles (32,000 kilometers) from our planet’s surface. That’s closer than the satellites that provide your TV and weather data. It will be the closest approach of an asteroid this large in recorded history, and it poses zero risk of hitting Earth.
When Apophis was first discovered in 2004, early calculations suggested it could be on a collision course with our planet. That set off years of intense tracking. NASA now confirms there is no risk of Apophis impacting Earth for at least 100 years.
How Close Apophis Will Actually Get
To put 20,000 miles in perspective, the Moon orbits at about 240,000 miles. Geostationary satellites, the ones that handle communications and weather imaging, sit roughly 22,000 miles above Earth. Apophis will pass below that ring of satellites, threading through a zone of near-Earth space that no known asteroid of its size has entered during the modern era of astronomy.
The flyby will happen on the evening of April 13, 2029. Observers in parts of Europe, Africa, and western Asia are expected to see Apophis with the naked eye as a bright point of light moving across the sky. For a brief window, it will be bright enough to spot without a telescope, something that essentially never happens with asteroids. It will cross the sky fast enough that its movement will be visible in real time, more like watching a satellite pass than a star.
What the Flyby Will Do to the Asteroid
Earth won’t feel a thing from the encounter, but Apophis will. Our planet’s gravity will tug hard enough on the asteroid to reshape several aspects of it. Its orbit around the Sun will shift. Its spin rate will change. And its surface may physically rearrange.
Researchers modeling the encounter predict that tidal forces from Earth’s gravity will cause small landslides on parts of the asteroid’s surface. The mechanism is similar to how the Moon pulls on Earth’s oceans, but far more dramatic relative to the asteroid’s weak gravity. About half an hour before the closest approach, gravitational stress on certain regions of Apophis will exceed the force holding loose rocks and dust in place. Simulations estimate that roughly 1 percent of the asteroid’s surface will be disturbed, exposing fresher material from beneath the weathered outer layer. Some regions will experience the opposite effect, with gravity pressing loose grains tighter against the surface.
The changes to the asteroid’s rotation and orbit will be permanent. Scientists consider this a rare natural experiment, a chance to watch gravitational forces reshape a small body in nearly real time.
NASA’s Spacecraft Will Be Watching
NASA is sending a dedicated spacecraft to study the aftermath. OSIRIS-APEX, a follow-on to the OSIRIS-REx mission that successfully collected samples from asteroid Bennu, will rendezvous with Apophis in June 2029, about two months after the flyby. Its job is to document exactly how the close pass changed the asteroid.
The spacecraft will measure changes in Apophis’s spin, orbit, and surface features. It will also perform a close approach of its own, firing its engines near the asteroid’s surface to blast away loose rocks and dust. That maneuver will let scientists study the composition of material just below the surface, material that would normally be hidden under a layer of space-weathered debris. Because Apophis is a “stony” asteroid made of silicate rock mixed with nickel and iron, the data will help scientists understand a common class of near-Earth objects.
A Partial Solar Eclipse in June
On June 12, 2029, a partial solar eclipse will be visible across parts of Northern and Central Europe, northern Russia, Greenland, Alaska, and northwestern Canada. This is not a total eclipse. At its peak, the Moon will cover less than half the Sun’s disk. The most dramatic coverage will be in Greenland, where up to about 33 percent of the Sun will be blocked, and in parts of northern Canada with similar coverage. Observers in Scandinavia will see 10 to 20 percent coverage, while most of mainland Europe will see only a few percent, a subtle dimming that’s easy to miss without eclipse glasses.
The Sun Enters a Quieter Phase
Solar Cycle 25, the current roughly 11-year cycle of solar activity, is expected to peak around mid-2025 and then gradually decline. By 2029, the Sun will be heading toward a solar minimum, with Solar Cycle 26 expected to begin sometime between January 2029 and December 2032. This means 2029 will likely see fewer solar flares, geomagnetic storms, and aurora displays compared to the peak years of 2024 and 2025. For most people, this simply means fewer disruptions to GPS and radio signals and less chance of seeing the northern lights at unusually low latitudes.
Climate and Population Trends
The World Meteorological Organization projects that globally averaged temperatures for the 2025 to 2029 period will run between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels. There is a 70 percent chance that the five-year average will exceed the 1.5°C threshold that international agreements have treated as a critical warming limit. This doesn’t mean any single policy target is officially breached, since those benchmarks refer to longer-term averages, but it signals that Earth’s climate in 2029 will continue the pattern of record or near-record warmth.
The global population will continue growing through 2029, part of a trajectory the United Nations projects from 8.2 billion in 2024 to around 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s. By 2029, the total will be somewhere in the mid-8 billions, with growth concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia while populations in parts of East Asia and Europe continue to decline.
Lunar Exploration Milestones
NASA’s Artemis program aims to continue sending astronauts to the Moon’s surface during this period. Artemis IV, currently scheduled for early 2028, would send a crew to the lunar surface using a commercial lander, with the astronauts returning to Earth via the Orion capsule. If the timeline holds, 2029 could see follow-on missions that build toward longer stays and the assembly of the Lunar Gateway, a small space station in lunar orbit. Space program timelines frequently shift, but the intent is for regular crewed Moon missions to be underway by the end of the decade.