Several critical raw materials face significant supply shortages or are heading toward serious deficits in the coming decade. Copper and lithium top the list, with projected shortfalls of 30% and 40% respectively by 2035 based on current mining projects. But the full picture extends well beyond battery metals to include semiconductor gases, rare earth elements, helium, and materials caught in escalating trade restrictions between major powers.
The U.S. Geological Survey now designates 60 minerals as critical, up from 50 in 2022, reflecting growing concern about supply chains that touch everything from phones and electric vehicles to medical devices and military systems.
Copper: The Biggest Supply Concern
Copper stands out as the raw material facing the most stubborn supply gap. Unlike lithium or nickel, where new mining projects could eventually close the deficit, copper faces a combination of problems that are harder to solve: ore grades at existing mines are declining, meaning each ton of rock yields less metal. Project costs are rising. And the rate of discovering new copper deposits has slowed sharply.
The International Energy Agency projects total copper demand will reach roughly 31 million metric tons by 2030, driven partly by clean energy technologies like electric vehicles, wind turbines, and grid infrastructure. Even with recycling and secondary supply contributing nearly 6 million metric tons, primary mining would need to deliver around 21 million metric tons annually. The pipeline of announced projects falls well short of that. By 2035, the expected supply gap is around 30%, and bringing new copper mines online typically takes a decade or more from discovery to production.
Lithium: Surplus Now, Shortage Later
Lithium prices collapsed in 2023 and 2024 after a wave of new supply hit the market, creating a temporary surplus. That glut has led some observers to assume the lithium crisis is over, but the IEA’s projections tell a different story. Rapidly growing demand from electric vehicle batteries is expected to flip the market back into deficit by the early 2030s, with supply from announced projects falling roughly 40% short of demand by 2035.
The outlook for lithium is somewhat less dire than copper because new lithium projects are generally easier and faster to develop. Large deposits exist in Australia, Chile, Argentina, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and extraction technology continues to improve. But the sheer pace of demand growth, particularly if EV adoption accelerates beyond current policy targets, could outstrip even optimistic production timelines.
Nickel and Cobalt: Easing but Not Solved
The supply picture for nickel and cobalt has improved considerably. A surge of new projects, especially nickel processing capacity in Indonesia, has narrowed long-term supply gaps. If projects currently in early planning stages come online on schedule, both metals could meet projected demand through 2035 under current policy settings. That’s a meaningful shift from just a few years ago, when cobalt in particular was considered one of the most vulnerable supply chains due to heavy dependence on mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Gallium, Germanium, and Antimony: Trade Restrictions
In December 2024, China’s Ministry of Commerce banned the export of gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials to the United States. The ban also imposed stricter controls on graphite exports. These aren’t obscure commodities. Gallium is essential for manufacturing semiconductors, LEDs, and 5G infrastructure. Germanium is used in fiber optic cables, infrared optics, and solar cells. Antimony has applications in flame retardants, ammunition, and battery technology.
China dominates global production of all three materials, so the export ban immediately tightened supply for U.S. manufacturers and their allies. Unlike a temporary disruption, this restriction is structural, rooted in escalating technology competition between the two largest economies. Finding alternative sources or building domestic refining capacity will take years, making these materials functionally scarce for buyers who previously relied on Chinese supply.
Rare Earth Elements: Concentrated, Not Scarce
Rare earth elements present a paradox. The IEA’s analysis suggests they will be sufficiently supplied through 2035 based on the current project pipeline. The problem isn’t the total amount of material in the ground. It’s where the supply chain sits. The top three mining countries control 86% of global rare earth production, and the top three refining countries control 97%. In practice, that concentration means China and a small handful of other nations.
This makes rare earths less a shortage story and more a vulnerability story. Physical supply exists, but access depends on geopolitical relationships, trade policies, and the willingness of dominant producers to keep selling. Any disruption, whether from export controls, diplomatic tensions, or natural disaster, could create an instant shortage for manufacturers of electric motors, wind turbines, and defense systems that rely on rare earth magnets.
Neon, Krypton, and Xenon: Semiconductor Gases
Chip manufacturing depends on ultra-pure neon gas for the lithography process that etches circuits onto silicon wafers. Without it, production stops. Before the conflict in Ukraine, the country supplied roughly 70% of the world’s semiconductor-grade neon, and the U.S. sourced up to 90% of its neon from Ukrainian suppliers. Ukraine is also a major source of xenon and krypton, two other gases critical to chipmaking.
The war disrupted these supply chains starting in 2022, prompting semiconductor companies to diversify their sourcing. Some chipmakers have secured alternative suppliers or invested in neon recycling systems, but the market remains tight and the concentration risk exposed a vulnerability that the industry had largely ignored for decades.
Helium: A Fragile Market With No Substitutes
Helium is irreplaceable in several critical applications. MRI machines need liquid helium to cool their superconducting magnets. Semiconductor fabs use it as a carrier gas. Rocket engines require it for pressurization. And unlike most other gases, helium that escapes into the atmosphere is effectively lost forever, floating up and out of Earth’s gravity.
Global production sits at roughly 190 million cubic meters annually, with the U.S. contributing about 63 million cubic meters and Qatar supplying a comparable share. Recent disruptions to Qatar’s natural gas processing, helium is extracted as a byproduct of LNG production, have driven spot prices sharply higher. Prices have doubled in some cases, with analysts warning they could exceed $2,000 per thousand cubic feet if disruptions persist. The market has almost no spare production capacity and limited storage. Once liquefied, helium must reach the end user within about 45 days.
During supply crunches, suppliers prioritize allocation. Medical MRI systems and aerospace typically receive full supply, while semiconductor manufacturers might see deliveries cut to 95%. Less critical uses get squeezed harder.
Phosphate Rock: A Quiet Vulnerability
Phosphate rock rarely makes headlines, but it underpins global food production. It’s the primary source of phosphorus, one of the three essential nutrients in fertilizer, and there is no synthetic substitute. The U.S. stopped exporting phosphate rock in 2003, shifting from a net exporter to a country focused on meeting domestic demand. Global reserves are heavily concentrated in Morocco and Western Sahara, which hold the vast majority of known deposits.
Unlike metals that can be recycled, phosphorus used in agriculture largely disperses into waterways and soil, making recovery difficult. The timeline for depletion is measured in decades rather than years, but the combination of concentrated reserves, growing global food demand, and limited recycling infrastructure puts phosphate rock firmly on the list of materials with long-term supply risk.
What Ties These Shortages Together
Three patterns run through nearly every material on this list. First, supply chains are geographically concentrated in ways that create single points of failure. Whether it’s neon from Ukraine, rare earths refined in China, or helium from Qatar, disruption in one region can ripple through global industries within weeks. Second, the energy transition is accelerating demand for metals like copper, lithium, and rare earths at a pace that existing mines and planned projects may not match. Third, geopolitical competition is turning raw materials into leverage, with export bans and trade restrictions creating artificial scarcity on top of natural supply constraints.
For industries and governments, the practical consequence is a scramble to diversify supply chains, invest in recycling and substitution research, and build domestic processing capacity. For consumers, it means the cost and availability of everything from electric vehicles to smartphones to medical imaging will remain tied to these supply dynamics for years to come.