Protein prices have climbed sharply since 2020, driven by a combination of shrinking livestock herds, bird flu outbreaks, and lingering inflation from the pandemic era. No single factor explains the sticker shock at the grocery store. Instead, several forces are hitting at once, each pushing a different protein source higher.
The Pandemic Set the Stage
Food-at-home prices surged during and after COVID-19, with meats and poultry among the hardest-hit categories. Processing plants shut down or slowed production, supply chains buckled, and wholesale prices spiked. At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine war drove up energy costs worldwide, which raised the price of everything from animal feed to refrigerated shipping. By the time those pressures started easing in 2023, prices had already reset at a higher baseline. The groceries you buy today still reflect that permanent step up.
Beef Herds Keep Shrinking
The U.S. cattle herd has been declining steadily since 2019, and the numbers haven’t turned around. As of mid-2025, the USDA counted 28.7 million beef cows, down 1 percent from two years prior. Replacement heifers, the young cows ranchers hold back to rebuild herds, dropped 3 percent over the same period. That means ranchers are still sending more animals to market than they’re replacing, which tightens supply further down the road.
Meanwhile, consumer demand for beef has stayed strong despite rising prices. When supply drops and demand holds steady, the result is predictable: higher prices per pound at the meat counter, and little relief in sight until ranchers begin expanding their herds again. That rebuilding process takes years because cattle have long breeding cycles.
Bird Flu Devastated Egg and Poultry Supplies
Highly pathogenic avian influenza, or bird flu, has been one of the most visible drivers of protein price spikes. In 2024 alone, HPAI hit 29 commercial flocks and affected 38.4 million egg-laying birds in the United States. Losing that many hens pulls a massive amount of production offline almost overnight.
The impact on egg prices was dramatic. Retail egg prices hit $4.95 per dozen in January 2025, a 96 percent jump compared to January 2024. University of Arkansas economists estimated that the bird losses alone caused an average week-to-week increase of 9 percent in retail egg prices, separate from all other inflationary pressures. Rebuilding commercial flocks takes months, so even after an outbreak ends, the price effects linger while producers raise new birds to laying age.
Feed and Fuel Cost More, Too
The price you pay for a chicken breast or a steak reflects what it cost to raise that animal, and two of the biggest input costs for farmers are feed and fuel. Corn and soybeans are the backbone of livestock feed. Organic corn recently averaged $8.14 per bushel, up from $6.56 the prior year. Organic soybeans averaged $22.07 per bushel, compared to $20.19 the year before. While conventional feed prices are lower, they follow the same upward trend. When it costs more to feed cattle, hogs, and chickens, those costs get passed along at every step of the supply chain.
Transportation adds another layer. Almost all meat and dairy in the U.S. moves by refrigerated truck, and trucking costs have risen thanks to higher diesel prices and a persistent shortage of drivers. Those two factors account for nearly 70 percent of what it costs to ship food by truck. USDA research found that during the 2017 to 2022 period, increases in diesel prices raised food costs by an average of 1.8 cents per pound across commodities. That may sound small, but it compounds across every link in the chain, from the feedlot to the distribution center to the grocery store shelf.
Why Plant-Based Protein Is Expensive, Too
If you’ve turned to protein powder, tofu, or other plant-based options expecting relief, you’ve probably noticed those prices have climbed as well. Plant proteins still depend on crops like soybeans, peas, and rice, all of which are subject to the same fuel, fertilizer, and transportation cost pressures. Processing plant-based ingredients into powders, bars, or meat alternatives requires specialized manufacturing, and higher energy costs raise the price of that processing. The broader inflation that lifted food prices across the board didn’t skip the plant-based aisle.
When Prices Might Ease
Some of the worst pressures have started to soften. Supply chain disruptions have largely resolved, and wholesale food prices came down from their 2022 peaks. But the structural problems, particularly the shrinking cattle herd and recurring bird flu outbreaks, won’t reverse quickly. Cattle herd rebuilding is a multi-year process, and avian influenza continues to circulate with the potential to hit new flocks each season.
For beef specifically, prices are unlikely to drop meaningfully until ranchers begin holding back more heifers to grow their herds, and that hasn’t started yet. Egg prices could stabilize faster if bird flu outbreaks slow, but any new wave of infections would send prices right back up. The best near-term strategy for your grocery budget is to shop across protein types. Pork and canned fish have generally seen smaller price increases than beef and eggs, and buying whole chickens rather than boneless cuts can stretch your dollar further.