Almost certainly, yes. The vast majority of people will catch COVID-19 at least once, and most will catch it multiple times over their lifetime. By mid-2021, before Omicron even existed, an estimated 36% to 57% of the world’s population had already developed antibodies from infection. Since then, the far more transmissible Omicron lineage has swept the globe repeatedly. While precise current figures are hard to pin down, the practical reality is that very few people will go their entire lives without encountering this virus.
Why Avoiding It Forever Is Nearly Impossible
COVID-19 is not a one-and-done infection like measles. The virus mutates rapidly, altering the shape of its spike protein so that antibodies from a previous infection or vaccination no longer recognize it as well. Each major variant, from Alpha through Omicron and its many sublineages, has found new ways to slip past immune defenses. Omicron alone evades over 85% of previously studied human neutralizing antibodies, and newer subvariants continue this trend.
This constant shapeshifting is why herd immunity, the idea that enough immune people in a population can stop a virus from spreading, is not a realistic goal for COVID-19. Herd immunity works for stable viruses like measles. It falls apart when the virus changes frequently, when immunity fades over time, and when infected people can spread the virus before they even feel sick. COVID-19 checks all three of those boxes.
Reinfection Is the Norm, Not the Exception
A study tracking thousands of healthcare workers over two years found that the median gap between first and second infections was roughly 14 months. During the Omicron period specifically, that interval stretched to about 16 months on average, but the reinfection rate itself jumped dramatically, rising more than fivefold compared to the pre-Omicron era (from 0.8% to 4.3% in that cohort).
These numbers come from a period when testing was still common. In practice, many reinfections go undetected because they cause milder symptoms or no symptoms at all, meaning the true reinfection rate is likely higher. The pattern emerging resembles what happens with the four older coronaviruses that have circulated in humans for decades: people catch them every few years, usually as ordinary colds. Scientists expect SARS-CoV-2 to eventually settle into this same rhythm as the fifth endemic seasonal coronavirus.
What “Endemic” Actually Means for You
The transition from pandemic to endemic doesn’t mean the virus disappears or becomes harmless. It means infections settle into a more predictable seasonal pattern, driven by waning immunity in the population, new births creating people with no prior exposure, and seasonal factors like school calendars and holiday gatherings. Think of it less like the virus going away and more like it becoming a permanent part of the respiratory virus landscape alongside flu and RSV.
During this endemic phase, the frequency of outbreaks will depend heavily on how quickly immunity fades, how much the virus continues to mutate, and how many people keep up with updated vaccines. The virus isn’t expected to become universally mild, but repeated exposures (through infection, vaccination, or both) build broader immune memory that generally keeps severe illness in check for most people.
A Small Group May Have Natural Resistance
There is a genetic factor that appears to give some people a significant edge. A 2023 study published in Nature found that people carrying a specific immune system gene variant called HLA-B*15:01 were more than twice as likely to remain completely asymptomatic after infection. Those who inherited two copies of this variant were over eight times more likely to have no symptoms at all.
The mechanism is fascinating: this gene variant helps the immune system recognize pieces of SARS-CoV-2 that look nearly identical to fragments of the older, common-cold coronaviruses. People with this variant essentially have a pre-trained immune response that kicks in immediately, clearing the virus before it can cause noticeable illness. About 10% of people in the study’s symptomatic group carried this variant, compared to about 5% in the general population baseline. It’s a meaningful advantage, but it doesn’t prevent infection entirely. It just makes infection far more likely to be silent.
Vaccines Protect Against Severity, Less Against Infection
Vaccines remain highly effective at preventing hospitalization and death, with effectiveness against severe outcomes holding at around 95% after a booster dose even against Omicron. Their ability to block infection itself is more modest: roughly 61% against symptomatic Omicron infection after a third dose, and that protection fades within months.
This gap between protection from severe disease and protection from infection is a key reason why even fully vaccinated people will likely catch COVID-19 at some point. Vaccination primes the deeper layers of the immune system, the T cells and memory B cells that prevent the virus from reaching the lungs and causing dangerous inflammation, but it doesn’t create an impenetrable barrier at the nose and throat where the virus first lands. Over time, as new variants emerge and antibody levels decline, breakthrough infections become increasingly common. The immune memory built up from vaccines and prior infections still kicks in to limit how sick you get.
What You Can Control
You probably can’t avoid COVID-19 forever, but you have real influence over how often you catch it and how sick you get. Improved ventilation and air filtration make a measurable difference. HEPA filters remove over 99.97% of airborne particles, and even standard filters rated MERV 13 or higher capture a meaningful share of virus-carrying aerosols. Well-ventilated spaces with good air exchange dramatically reduce the concentration of infectious particles you breathe in.
Staying current with updated vaccines builds the broadest possible immune foundation, reducing both your chances of symptomatic infection and your risk of severe outcomes if you do get infected. Timing matters too: getting a booster before winter respiratory season, when transmission peaks, maximizes the window of strongest protection. Masks, particularly well-fitting N95 or KN95 respirators, still work to filter out infectious aerosols in high-risk settings like crowded indoor spaces or healthcare facilities.
None of these measures guarantee you’ll never get infected. But collectively, they reduce how frequently you encounter the virus, lower the dose you’re exposed to when you do, and ensure your immune system is as prepared as possible to handle it quickly. The realistic goal isn’t zero infections over a lifetime. It’s fewer infections, milder infections, and enough immune preparation that each encounter is manageable rather than dangerous.