Yes, the International Space Station will fall to Earth, and there’s already a plan to make it happen safely. NASA has committed to operating the ISS through 2030, after which a specially built spacecraft will guide the station into a controlled reentry over a remote stretch of ocean. Without regular maintenance of its orbit, the station would eventually fall on its own, but letting that happen uncontrolled would risk scattering debris over populated areas. So NASA is spending $843 million to make sure it comes down exactly where they want it.
Why the ISS Can’t Stay Up Forever
The ISS orbits about 248 miles above Earth’s surface, traveling at roughly 17,900 mph. At that altitude, there’s still a thin layer of atmosphere creating drag on the station. That drag constantly pulls the ISS lower, and without intervention, it would slowly spiral toward Earth over months or years.
During quiet periods of solar activity, the station needs orbit-raising maneuvers (called reboosts) about four times per year. But when the Sun is more active, it heats and expands the upper atmosphere, pushing denser air into the station’s path. During solar maximums, which occur on an 11-year cycle, reboosts may be needed every two to three weeks. The ISS has relied on visiting spacecraft and its own systems to perform these boosts for over two decades. Once those stop, gravity wins.
The Controlled Deorbit Plan
NASA awarded SpaceX a contract to develop the U.S. Deorbit Vehicle (USDV), a spacecraft based on SpaceX’s Dragon capsule with a significantly enhanced propulsion section. Existing spacecraft that visit the ISS don’t carry enough thrust to push something this massive out of orbit on a precise trajectory, which is why a custom vehicle was necessary.
The deorbit will happen in stages. First, the station’s altitude will be allowed to decay naturally as reboosts are discontinued. Then, controllers will intentionally lower the orbit further using propulsive systems already attached to the station. Finally, the USDV will fire its engines for the critical reentry burn, targeting a debris footprint over a remote, unpopulated area of ocean. NASA will take ownership of the vehicle after SpaceX builds it and operate it throughout the final mission. The USDV itself will break apart alongside the station during reentry.
What Survives the Fall
The ISS weighs roughly 900,000 pounds, making it the largest single structure ever built in space. Not all of that will burn up on the way down. NASA estimates that between 10 and 40 percent of a spacecraft’s dry mass typically survives reentry, with about 30 percent being a common planning figure. For the ISS, that could mean tens of thousands of pounds of metal reaching the ocean surface. Dense components like structural joints and engine parts tend to survive, while solar panels and thin-walled modules are more likely to disintegrate from the extreme heat of atmospheric friction.
This is precisely why a controlled deorbit matters. Letting debris rain over a footprint that could stretch thousands of miles without choosing where that footprint falls would be reckless, especially given how much of the station will make it through intact.
Lessons From Skylab
NASA learned this lesson the hard way in 1979 when Skylab, its first space station, reentered the atmosphere in an uncontrolled fashion. At 169,000 pounds, Skylab was a fraction of the ISS’s mass, but it still scattered debris across a footprint stretching 2,450 miles, with pieces landing over the Indian Ocean and western Australia. The station broke apart at about 10 miles altitude, slightly lower than engineers predicted, which shifted the impact zone further east than planned.
That experience directly shaped how Russia deorbited the Mir space station in 2001, using a controlled three-stage process to drop it safely into the Pacific Ocean. The ISS plan follows the same philosophy with far more capable hardware. The margin for error with a station five times heavier than Skylab is essentially zero.
What Replaces the ISS
NASA is working with private companies to develop commercially owned and operated space stations before the ISS comes down, specifically to avoid a gap in human presence in low Earth orbit. The goal is a seamless transition: new stations come online, the ISS retires, and research in orbit continues without interruption. Several companies are developing competing designs, though none are operational yet. The timeline is tight, with the ISS set to deorbit around 2030 and commercial replacements needing to be ready before that date.